Cryptoquant’s bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, which could signal that “the market structure is starting to recover,” the firm’s onchain market analyst Julio Moreno said Wednesday.
“Historically, this has been an important regime change signal,” Moreno wrote. “When the indicator moves out of the bear territory and into the early bull zone, it often indicates that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and the market structure is starting to recover.”
For Mati Greenspan, a former eToro senior market analyst and founder at Quantum Economics, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is an indicator of regime change, not a crystal ball. He said that “historically, it has been most useful in identifying when bitcoin stops behaving as a bear market asset.”
Greenspan said the real confirmation will come later with sustained demand, liquidity and price acceptance at higher levels. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he added.
He recalled that when this indicator turned green in 2019 and again in early 2023 after intense bearish phases, the market moved into “stronger bullish trends.” However, Moreno acknowledged that March 2022 remains a critical exception. Then the indicator turned bullish, but delivered a false positive, ahead of a move into a deeper downtrend.
The analyst also emphasized why the current May 2026 is so crucial. “On the one hand, the indicator shows the first constructive regime change in years,” he said. “Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear market asset, and the rebound in the 30-day moving average suggests an improvement in momentum below the surface.”
Currently, Bitcoin is in a tug-of-war similar to 2022. While onchain metrics are healing, the asset is struggling decisively to reverse the $82,000 resistance level, a ceiling that has held despite several breakout attempts this month after a 35% decline from February’s $60,000 levels.
To confirm this bullish signal, bitcoin needs to overcome the “fatigue” currently visible in secondary metrics, Moreno suggested. Unlike clean early-cycle entries of the past, this move collides with a neutral Fear & Greed index and a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
While Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes did not mention CryptoQuant’s indicator, he echoed the sentiment that the cycle has changed, stating that he believes Bitcoin already bottomed out at $60,000 earlier this year. Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, pointed to $90,000 as the level where the rally would become explosive, heading towards the previous high of $126,000.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, concluded that while these indicators are useful, they are often misunderstood. “Metrics like MVRV (Market cap versus realized cap) or NUPL (net unrealized profit and loss) were never designed to be accurate trading signals,” he said. “They are better seen as behavioral frameworks for understanding where Bitcoin sits within a broader liquidity cycle.”
