The US-Israeli war with Iran plunged the world into its worst energy crisis ever, reducing oil production and sending prices skyrocketing. These much higher prices have created windfalls for companies operating outside the Persian Gulf – especially in the US, which has been selling much more energy than usual.
But inside the Persian Gulf, the story is much more complicated. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point between the Gulf and the rest of the world, has forced the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and other countries to cut production and exports. Some have worse pain than others. Those that can use pipelines to divert their oil to ports away from the strait have fared much better than countries without such options.
This energy crisis affects everyone, but not equally. The New York Times analyzed months of export and price data from S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea and Argus Media to assess how much some of the world’s biggest oil producers have sold and at what price. The analysis looked specifically at oil and related products exported by sea, which have been most affected by the closure of the strait.
Understanding who wins and who loses in that group helps explain why some countries are better equipped to withstand the economic consequences of this war. It also gives clues about the future. If the strait is no longer a reliable channel, today’s winners are likely to remain dominant. If the strait reopens, countries’ ability to recover will be informed by how painful the shutdown has been for them.
“The longer the strait remains closed, those who have profited from this will continue to gain,” said Jim Burkhard, head of global oil research for S&P Global Energy. “Those who are challenged by it, it can become more severe for them.”
USA
The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, cushioning the economic blow from a war it and Israel started. At the end of March, US companies exported much more oil, diesel and other fuels than usual. It helped make up for a small portion of the energy the world has lost and kept prices from rising even more.
But unlike many other major oil producers, the United States does not have a state-owned oil company. This means that major oil companies receive the vast majority of this extra income. So far, there is little indication that they will reinvest those profits into drilling more or hiring more workers. This means that there is unlikely to be a major war-related economic boom in Texas, New Mexico and other oil-producing states.
Instead, much of the extra income is likely to benefit investors in the form of higher share prices and dividends. Many state governments will also earn more because they will receive larger tax and royalty payments, as will landowners who have allowed oil drilling on their property.
Russia
Russia has been another big beneficiary – not because it sells more oil, but because it gets paid more for its oil. The main reason is that the war has caused oil prices around the world to rise. The US also temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian oil in March, an abrupt policy shift that most likely helped Russia receive more for its oil than it otherwise would have. At the beginning of April, the price of Russian oil sold off the Gulf of Finland, for example, approached $120 per barrel, up from $41 before the war. That said, Ukraine has sought to limit Russia’s ability to take advantage of higher prices by attacking the country’s oil infrastructure.
Persian Gulf
Most producers in the Persian Gulf have not been so lucky. If anything, the war has emphasized the importance of having export outlets other than the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have done relatively well because they invested years ago in oil pipelines that go around the strait, an expensive form of insurance that pays off. Saudi Arabia’s exports have fallen by over 150 million barrels during the war compared to a year earlier, but its revenue from those sales rose by an estimated $9.2 billion.
Iran, which has controlled access to the strait, also fared relatively well through mid-April. But the country’s exports plunged after the US imposed a naval blockade targeting vessels linked to Iran, further straining the country’s economy.
Neighboring countries that have neither control over the strait nor alternative export routes have been particularly hard hit. They include Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar.
Officials in some Gulf countries have begun exploring building or expanding pipelines that would bypass the strait. But such projects are likely to cost billions of dollars and take years to complete. For the foreseeable future, these countries will likely remain at the mercy of whoever exercises control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Methodology
The New York Times analyzed weekly export data from S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea that showed seaborne shipments of crude oil and a range of related products, from gasoline and diesel to naphtha, which is often used to make plastics. The Times paired those export volumes with price data from Argus Media, using regional benchmarks such as Brent, a price for oil produced in the North Sea in Europe, and Urals, the main Russian price.
The Times also estimated revenue from the sale of exported petroleum products. It grouped products into broad categories, using prices for what the industry calls “gasoil,” a category that includes diesel and heating oil, to estimate the value of certain products and crude oil prices for others, in part because it wasn’t always clear which fuels were being exported.
To analyze exports and estimated turnover, The Times reviewed data from February 28, the day the war started, to May 8, 2026, as well as the comparable period a year earlier: from March 1 to May 9, 2025.
Aaron Krolik contributed with reporting.
