Bitcoin’s three-month uptrend against gold appears to have ended as ETF flows shift toward gold and other precious metals.
This is evident from the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures the dollar price per coin on BTC against the gold price per ounces. This is the chart that tells you which “store of value” investors actually prefer at any given time.
Since early March, bitcoin has been the clear winner, lifting the ratio higher from around 12 points to 18 points.
But not anymore.
Growth has stalled recently, and over the past 24 hours it has been significantly lower, snapping the three-month uptrend.
The ratio has penetrated the uptrend line that characterizes BTC’s mini-bull run against gold. In the world of technical analysis, this is a major breakdown that signals a renewed shift in momentum in favor of gold.
Why this matters
The signal is not just about lines on the chart, but tells us where the smart money might be going.
When the Iran war began in late February and oil prices rose to over $100 a barrel, barrel, investors were looking for a place to park cash. And for a while, they bet on bitcoin as a haven, as evidenced by the recovery in the BTC-gold ratio.
But the same ratio has now invalidated its uptrend, pointing to renewed investor rotation to gold.
Note that chart patterns like trendline breakdowns can and often are fleeting, but so far the message is clear: gold can outperform BTC in the short term.
Market trends support this interpretation.
Precious metal ETFs in demand
Exchange-traded funds tied to bitcoin have fallen out of favor with investors, losing more than $2 billion in two weeks amid a tightening of Treasury rates and the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates
Meanwhile, gold and precious metal funds are in demand. Those funds pulled in $2.34 billion in investor money during the week ended May 20, extending their inflow streak to a second straight week, Reuters reported, citing LSEG Lipper data.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was changing hands near $75,600, down 0.3% from midnight UTC hours, and gold was trading largely unchanged around $4,500.
