The institutional bid under bitcoin runs on steam.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 4,500 BTC since the start of the year, an unusually thin number considering the products were the structural buyer driving the 2025 rally, as of Swissblock data shared on X Tuesday.
March and April produced a steady accumulation that helped lift bitcoin from lows near $65,000, while May has turned the other way with just three days left before the month ends.
“After strong accumulation in March and April, May has returned to distribution,” Swissblock said in its post. “The risk index is now moving into high-risk territory while ETF flows are deteriorating at the same time. This tells us that spot ETF demand is no longer absorbing selling pressure effectively.”
The reversal matters because the earlier multiple rallies in bitcoin needed ETF buying to clear supply from miners, long-term holders and short-term profit-taking traders.
When that supply thins, the supply must find another buyer, or the price will fall to a level where the buyers will show up. Swissblock’s argument is that the Risk Index, which measures structural selling pressure against absorption, may continue to rise as long as the ETF channel remains in distribution.
Bitcoin traded at $75,808 in Asian hours on Tuesday, down 2.6% over the past month and near the bottom of its May range. The cryptocurrency had briefly traded above $82,000 earlier in May, before the producer price index print and subsequent macro stress pulled it back below $80,000. ETH, XRP and Solana were all in the red, with Zcash leading the slide down 9% on the day.
The Swissblock reading is the latest in a series of on-chain data pointing in the same direction.
Apparent demand, which measures how much the bitcoin market is absorbing relative to new supply, has fallen back to its weakest level since December, CoinDesk reported Tuesday.
CryptoOnchain recorded $1.74 billion in US spot ETF withdrawals over the past two weeks, along with retailers adding leverage in anticipation of a reversal, a combination that has historically preceded sharp liquidation cascades when the market moves against volume.
What the data doesn’t yet tell traders is whether this is a break or a turn.
ETF buying has declined before during this cycle without leading to deeper moves. Meanwhile, equity markets globally are at record highs, and FXPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich said bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages are on track to cross in the coming weeks, a setup known as a golden cross that is generally read as bullish.
But ETF demand is the channel that brought in the new money. If that channel remains in distribution, the structural case for the rally that began in April begins to look thinner.
