- Rivian’s boss believes that we will have our eyes off driving within 18 months
- It will be the “most disruptive feature we’ve seen,” according to RJ Scaringe
- But a new report suggests Tesla’s engineers and staff don’t trust the technology
Rivian’s boss and CEO, RJ Scaringe, believes that we will see increasing levels of autonomous driving arrive in the coming months.
Speaking to Top Gear during a test drive of the upcoming R2, which the company hopes will be its first electric SUV with genuine mass appeal, Scaringe revealed he believes we will move from level two to three, which includes hands-off and eyes-off autonomous driving, within “the next 18 months”.
He also went on to state that he believes we will reach true Level 4 autonomous driving by the end of the decade. At that time, vehicles will be able to handle all driving tasks within geofenced zones.
Human passengers are relieved of duties because Level 4 autonomous vehicles should be able to reach a safe state in the event of a system failure. This is the level at which most fully autonomous robotic axes currently operate, but it is not something that has been made commercially viable to date.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has regularly stated that the company’s autonomous driving technology is capable of allowing those behind the wheel to “text and drive” as well as engage in other distracting side tasks.
But a recent report from Pakinomist counters this, claiming that even those who work closely with the systems do not trust them.
Speaking to nine former Tesla data markers, one former self-driving engineer and 11 road safety researchers, the Pakinomist report found that seven of the former data markers said they would not trust FSD to drive them.
“We’ve all seen it fail,” said one. Another said he wouldn’t drive a Tesla robot taxi “if you damn paid me.”
A veteran self-driving engineer who pored over Tesla crash data for years called its safety claims “bullsh*t.”
The report goes on to state that Tesla’s FSD crash reporting is confusing and misleading, and rejects its claims that the technology is “10x safer than a human”.
Analysis: hype doesn’t help
The data loggers Pakinomist spoke to have the unenviable job of reviewing footage from eight exterior cameras on Tesla vehicles using Full Self-Driving (FSD).
One could argue that they only see the bad side of FSD, but most of those interviewed admitted that they regularly saw the technology fail at basic tasks such as stopping for emergency vehicles, giving enough space to motorcyclists and cyclists and even avoiding construction zones.
What’s more, a specialized group, known internally and informally as the “trauma team,” said it focused on near misses and other dangerous situations.
One person said they saw clips showing drivers manually overtaking at the last second when FSD failed to recognize pedestrians in crosswalks.
Two other former employees recalled seeing videos last year of FSD-piloted Teslas nearly hitting children.
Both Rivian and Tesla’s CEOs feel that improvements in large-scale language models and the microchips that power modern vehicles will accelerate the adoption of greater levels of automation in passenger vehicles, but it’s far more complicated than that, involving driver training, legislation and more.
Many feel that to allow drivers to engage in side tasks and effectively hand off driving tasks to the vehicle means the technology needs to be perfect, not just a “safer than human” driver.
Overinflating the technology’s capabilities has previously led to confusion and complacency among users, which, at least in Tesla’s case, has already resulted in countless lawsuits and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
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