- Smartphone shipments could drop 13.9% this year
- That would bring them to their lowest level since 2013
- The decrease is largely due to rising memory prices
2026 looks set to be a bad year for the smartphone industry as shipments are predicted to decline by 13.9% year-on-year. That would mean 1.08 billion units shipped, the lowest annual volume since 2013.
That’s a big drop and a massive change in direction for the industry, which before 2026 had experienced nine consecutive quarters of growth.
This 13.9% decline prediction comes from Counterpoint, which revises its previous forecast of a 12.4% decline. So, in other words, things are going to be even worse than previously predicted.
This downward trend is largely driven by the ongoing memory supply crisis, with AI gobbling up much of the available RAM, leading to skyrocketing prices. As a result, Counterpoint predicts that “the sub-$150 segment faces effective permanent removal in some markets.”
As cheap phones disappear, brands focused on low-end devices and emerging markets will especially struggle, which is part of the reason Samsung and Apple are said to be the “most insulated” brands — that and the fact that they have integrated supply chains.
Minor falls and even some climbs
As a result, iPhone shipments are expected to remain largely flat this year, according to Counterpoint, and to grow by 5% next year. Samsung, meanwhile, could see a 4% decline this year, which is far less than the industry as a whole.
The only other brand that Counterpoint highlights as being in good shape is Huawei, which actually managed to grow 1% in the first quarter of the year. This was apparently achieved by keeping its prices static in order to increase its market share.
Conversely, Xiaomi’s shipments fell more than any of the other top five phone brands in the first quarter, down 19%.
The big winner from all of this, however, appears to be the refurbished market, which is expected to grow by 13% this year as new phones become too expensive for many buyers.
Counterpoint predicts the market won’t bounce back until 2028, but the landscape could be very different by then if some brands fail to weather the storm.
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