Bitcoin and the broader crypto market steadied Wednesday from Tuesday’s slide after Strategy ( MSTR ), the largest publicly traded bitcoin holder, sold a small portion of its stashes and spot ETFs extended a record number of net outflows.
The cryptocurrency’s 14-day RSI has dipped below 30, a textbook oversold reading. The indicator measures the speed and magnitude of price movements over a two-week period.
While a reading below 30 suggests that bearish momentum is dominant, analysts often read this as a sign that the selling has been too fast and may stall, allowing for a recovery. While it’s not guaranteed, it’s a position that has played out several times.
Oversold readings in early February, November 2025, late February 2025 and August 2024 marked temporary or major price lows. So there is hope that sales may ease soon.
Some analysts are more cautious. “Blood is in the water, act accordingly,” Monarq Asset Management said in a Telegram chat.
“With long-awaited regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act looking less likely every day (Jamie Dimon openly hostile, pulling no punches, using DC power to position against it), value and speculative buyers are stepping back and looking for the long-term, long-awaited capitulation move,” Monarq CIO Sam Gaer said.
According to Gaer, $60,000 remains the focus, and a break below this level could trigger a sell-off to as low as $45,000, as predicted by the theory that the BTC price follows a four-year cycle.
Noting an increase in BTC’s implied volatility, QCP Capital said the message is less “buy the dip” and more “please insure the dip before discussing it.”
Overall, weakening institutional and corporate bids and concerns about Fed rate hikes limit the possibility of a sustained recovery, although the RSI hints at a potential recovery. According to QCP, BTC needs to hold above $67,000 to restore bullish sentiment. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
- Bullish crypto bets lose $1.6 billion as ETH, SOL, DOGE fall 9% (CoinDesk): Crypto traders who were hoping the market would catch up with the global equity rally were left in tears on Wednesday as a sharp price drop triggered the biggest liquidation event since early February.
- Prediction market traders bet bitcoin selloff to run longer (CoinDesk): Markets now imply a 66% chance of bitcoin falling below $55,000 and a coin-flip chance of sub-$50,000 prices before the end of the year.
- SpaceX is worth less than half its $1.75 trillion IPO target, says Morningstar (CNBC): With SpaceX expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq in just over two weeks, Morningstar analysts say it is “significantly overvalued.”
- Hostilities flare in Iran war, oil jumps as talks deadlock (Reuters): The flare-up, which sent oil prices up more than 1%, comes with the conflict halted in a shaky ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, more than three months after the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format with the 14-day relative strength index in the bottom panel.
The RSI has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions. Similar readings have marked temporary or interim price bottoms in the past.
