To say bitcoin bears feel good would be an understatement. The cryptocurrency is down 14% in seven days, falling to levels not seen since the crash in February. Broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating, with most analysts saying the situation could worsen further if BTC breaks below the critical $60,000 threshold.
Amid the gloom, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, sees a different picture.
This week’s crypto pain was real, Kendrick said, but he believes “the bottom is almost in.” His case rests on three pillars:
Strategy (MSTR) repeats its 2022 operation: When Strategy last sold BTC, in December 2022, it bought back more than it sold just two days later. Kendrick expects the firm to do the same after selling 32 BTC last week. It could potentially buy as much as 100 times that amount, he said in an email, adding that if confirmed next Monday, he would treat it as a preliminary signal that the low is in.
ETF holdings are stronger than feared: The 11 spot ETFs listed in the US have seen net outflows of $5 billion over the past three weeks. Yet if we zoom out, the stocks have hardly moved. Cumulative net inflows since inception in early 2024 are back at $54.2 billion, right where they were earlier this year. “They went up from 682,000 and then back to now 674,000 (largely unchanged). This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” he said.
Liquidations are mostly done: Bitcoin futures bets worth $1.5 billion have been liquidated by exchanges. That figure is similar to January, and with BTC already having badly underperforming stocks this year, the pool of leveraged longs left to liquidate is smaller than before, he argued.
The takeaway? There are too many “Ifs” involved to predict an exact bottom, but according to Kendrick, accumulating here makes more sense than waiting for certainty.
“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k, we’ll say this was the buy zone we all wanted,” he said. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The weekly bitcoin price chart suggests the same thing as Standard Chartered’s Kendrick: the bear market is likely in its final phase and the bottom may be close.
The cryptocurrency is trading close to its 200-week simple moving average. That’s notable because previous bear markets ended around the same average as the green arrows on the chart show.
So, if the past is any guide, a bottom may soon occur. Note, however, that past patterns are no guarantee of future performance.
