As such, Allium can only tie about 6% of Polymarket’s political market purses to a country – so the firm says the numbers should be read as indicative rather than exact.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to the request for comment ahead of the US market.
Meanwhile, another interesting part is what the Americans are betting on. Geopolitics made up 46% of US theoretical vs. 36% for the platform as a whole, while elections drew 16% from US wallets vs. 32% across the platform, meaning the American crowd trades foreign wars at nearly three times the rate it trades the election everyone else prefers.
Of America’s twelve largest markets, five were bets on the Iran war. Its biggest single, at $20.8 million, was a news market on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit.
These are pretty much the markets that regulated US venues don’t have. Kalshi and Polymarket’s compliant US arm mostly stick to economic data, rate decisions and elections, so demand flows to the offshore version showing regime changes and ceasefires.
The pattern regulators may fear is the one the data does not show.
In markets that have settled, US wallets backed the winner 81.9% of the time versus 80.3% for everyone else, effectively no advantage, and returns if held were almost identical.
