The muted response is the pattern now. When Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, Brent crude jumped above $100 a barrel. barrel for the first time in four years and later peaked near $120, and bitcoin sold off sharply with each escalation.
Part of it is timing. Oil, stocks and bonds are closed for the weekend, so bitcoin is the only major market open to pricing the strikes in real time, treating them as close to a non-event.
The fuller response across assets, particularly in crude oil, may not show until Monday. About a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil moves through Hormuz, and Brent had already carried a risk premium into the weekend after tanker traffic through the strait remained below normal.
However, the real test will come on Monday if crude oil reopens a sharp gap higher while bitcoin holds its ground. A quieter oil opening would mean the strait closure is being read as a threat Tehran has made and backed off before.
