Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly weekly, according to CoinDesk data. The market is stable on the surface, but the macro background underneath has turned.
President Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% fee on all other cargo moving through the waterway, reviving a conflict that a June peace deal appeared to resolve.
Brent crude rose as much as 2.8% to around $85 a barrel. barrel, its second day of gains, and traders raised bets on a Fed rate hike.
This combination runs directly against crypto. Oil pushing higher feeds the inflationary pressures that kept the Fed hawkish through June, and the easing of those pressures was much of what allowed bitcoin to recover from its late June lows near $58,000. The peace deal is now unwinding and the odds of interest rate hikes are on the way back.
Bitcoin has spent a month between around $59,000 and $66,000, and the majors are mixed. Ether held close to $1,783 and is up on the week, while Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid are all down 5% or more over seven days.
Today’s inflation pressure from June is the more immediate test. A low number would ease the rate hike pressure that the Iran news has just revived. A warm one, especially with oil climbing, would stack another hawkish signal on top of the first, two weeks before the Fed meets on July 28-29.
