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The 2026 MLB All-Star Game may have been the last we’ve seen for a while — and unfortunately for baseball fans, that’s no exaggeration.
The clock has been ticking for a while, but now an impending MLB work stoppage is upon us. The current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, and even this one took several jumps and hurdles to reach an agreement.
The 2022 season was delayed due to an owner’s lockout following the expiration of the previous CBA the previous December. But the feeling at the time among baseball pundits was, if you thought it was bad, wait until 2026.
Commissioner of Major League Baseball Robert D. Manfred speaks during the 2026 All-Star Legacy Veterans Multi-Service Center renovation at the Veterans Multi-Service Center on Monday, July 13, 2026, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Well, 2026 is here and they weren’t kidding.
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In the days of the biggest contracts in sports history, baseball has reached an impasse of big-market teams taking over players, dollars and — in recent years — titles, while small-market teams have been left out to dry more than ever.
The history of any spillover stretches back to even before Marvin Miller ever held a baseball, but the writing for these contentious talks has been on the wall since the negotiations five years ago.
And with baseball potentially seeing a fourth straight year of increased attendance for the first time since 2004 to 2007, the game can’t afford any missed opportunities that will scare fans away from the diamond.
So here’s everything to know about the talks, what each side wants and what could happen as the talks unfold.
Salary ceiling/floor
One side will argue that it’s all the Los Angeles Dodgers’ fault. They signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million contract prior to the 2024 season, which was the first contract in baseball to exceed even $500 million, and 98% of that deal is deferred until the contract expires. In total, the Dodgers’ current AAV payroll is over $440 million, a far cry from the Miami Marlins’ $81 million, all while dozens of millions are deferred.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani #17 warms up before the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 3, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images) (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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In this world of crazy contracts, only a handful of teams are constantly in the conversation to sign star free agents. The Dodgers and New York Yankees have always been there, and the New York Mets have recently joined the fray thanks to Steve Cohen, who signed Juan Soto to a $765 million contract. Other teams are sometimes in the mix, but it’s usually unrealistic to consider them true threats for these types of megadeals.
However, the other side can blame the small market teams, who have multi-billionaire owners, but their salaries are only a fraction of that. The bottom five payrolls in the league add up to just over $500 million, which is less than what the Dodgers will spend after luxury tax.
For example, there are extremes on both sides – two teams don’t even have nine-figure payrolls. The Marlins payroll is actually about half of what it used to be in 2017, despite a sale of the team and everyone in the league making more money than ever. The Dodgers have already committed more money in 2030 than 12 teams have this season.
The league wants a salary cap and not much will get in the way.
“I have an ownership group that is more unified than any other group in my entire time in baseball,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said Tuesday ahead of the All-Star Game.
Manfred added that owners are simply “listening to our fans” regarding a salary cap, saying it “defies human experience … to think that the lower end of that [payroll] gap has the same opportunity to win the top.” The owners are even willing to split their local TV rights deal if there is a cap.
“What our fans in a number of our markets are telling us, better than half of them, is that there is a lack of competitive balance in the game. And everything we’re proposing is aimed at addressing that concern of fans,” Manfred said. “I believe that in order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, especially concerns that go to the heart of what we are about – which is competitive balance. We need to ensure that fans in the markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.
“I think we need a system where fans, especially in smaller markets, can have some hope that the players that are signed and developed by their organizations can actually stay there through free agency. And frankly, I think we need a system where there’s a more robust free agent market. So if you don’t want to go to New York or Los Angeles, you have a realistic opportunity to get a viable free agent.”
However, the players will not budge. A salary cap, which has never existed in the league, is not negotiable. They want owners to spend a minimum and have no maximum.
“The salary cap is the ultimate excuse not to compete. It’s the ultimate excuse for an owner to say, ‘Well, I want to make the team better, but you know I can’t,'” MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer said Tuesday. “The salary cap is bad for fans. The salary cap prevents teams from doing the things that they think are in their best interest to make the team better.”
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred presents the Allan H. Selling Award for Philanthropic Excellence during the 2022 MLB Winter Meetings at the Manchester Grand Hyatt. (Orlando Ramirez/Imagn Images)
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“Every team in baseball can afford to compete, many choose not to,” Meyer added. “To me, that’s the biggest issue right now.”
Service time/free agency
Players will, and owners are willing to let them, become free agents earlier. As of now, players are typically under team control for six years, subject to tampering with service time (more on that soon).
The first three years are pre-arbitration, meaning players receive the league minimum each season. Then, in each of the following three seasons, the player and team essentially agree on one-year contracts, but those discussions can become contentious.
Now teams can turn those six years into almost a full seven. A famous example is Kris Bryant, who in 2015 was optioned to the minor leagues for less than two weeks to give the Chicago Cubs nearly an extra full season of control, leading to a lawsuit.
The current CBA tries to combat the tactic in that if a prospect starts the year on the opening day list and wins certain major awards, e.g. Rookie of the Year, that team may receive draft picks. Also, if a player finishes in the top two of the Rookie of the Year voting, he will get a full season of service time regardless of when he was called up. Pre-arbitration players can also earn more money based on their success during the season.
But some teams are still willing to take the risk in an attempt to keep their players longer. Players’ desire to become free agents earlier, especially for those who don’t hit free agency until they turn 30, will certainly help their cause.
MLB owners recently proposed a salary cap for the first time since 1994, and we all know how that turned out. They have also offered strict contract limits, capping deal lengths at six years at 16% of their proposed salary cap for players re-signing with clubs, and five years at 15% for those signing with different teams. That would be the biggest change since there have been 29 contracts in MLB history totaling 10 years or longer, and it’s been nearly 60 years since Al Kaline signed the first seven-year deal.
On the other hand, the players recently offered a 28-man roster instead of the normal 26 for the first 15 days of the regular season to continue to avoid tampering with service time.
If the long-held speculation is correct, the owners will likely lock out the players if a deal is not reached. As long as the players refuse a salary cap, the start of next season is at least in jeopardy.
However, Manfred remains “optimistic”.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred watches before game one of the National League Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill., on Sept. 30, 2025. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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“I really believe that if people engage in the process, you find ways through things,” he said.
Baseball hasn’t lost a game since 1995, when the season had to be shortened by 18 games due to the players’ strike that cost the postseason in 1994. But if neither side is willing to budge on essentially its top priority, an unfortunate story could happen at a time when baseball is booming again.
