- A joint Insider/Der Spiegel/Le Monde investigation published leaked documents showing a Chinese-authored three-level plan to contain and defeat Starlink
- The plan, presented to Russian officers at a secret forum in 2023, highlights a three-tiered approach to containing and destroying SpaceX’s Starlink
- A separately signed June 2023 Moscow Protocol also commits Russia and China to jointly building a hypersonic missile defense system based on technology Russia had never before been willing to share, even with allies
Starlink is the world’s largest satellite constellation ever built, and as a result it also serves as the backbone for many civilian and military communications channels.
With approximately 10,400 satellites in low Earth orbit per June 2026, SpaceX’s Low Earth Orbit Satellite Internet Network covers nearly 160 different countries and territories while providing low-latency (20-40 milliseconds) communications that often make it a better choice than GEO systems, which have a 50-millisecond round-trip delay.
Its potential for military use was, until recently, downplayed by many in the industry, but it has formed the communications backbone for Ukraine in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, earning the ire of the Russian government and renewed focus from China, which has already covertly begun preparing for an eventuality where it would have to disable the network.
A secret meeting that highlighted growing Sino-Russian military cooperation
With China confirming that its ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia is still very much in play as early as 2025, a year-long study led by The InsiderGermany’s Der Spiegeland France’s Le Monde indicates that both players may have already expanded the scope significantly beyond what was visible previously, especially when it came to their respective military ambitions.
Starlink, which the Russians see as a key obstacle to their campaign in Ukraine, forms the backbone of the latter’s communications, although the former is cut off from access as the conflict continues to unfold in what is now its 5th year of fighting.
For China, it represents a growing threat, underscored by the US military’s increasing reliance on SpaceX, which is not only the Pentagon’s main space contractor but also helps the US government deploy and service its military version of Starlink: Starshield.
Chinese military officials and engineers met with Russian officers in November 2023 at a summit in Guangzhou to discuss how to tackle Starlink, presenting a 3-pronged plan of action: diplomatic pressure, jamming, then cyber attack and, alternatively, physical destruction.
Not only would both China and Russia aim to use their considerable weight in diplomatic forums to impede Starlink’s growth by imposing regulatory pressure, but they would also invest in electromagnetic jamming infrastructure to render existing satellites unusable in certain geographic areas, even if they cooperated within each other’s ecosystems.
Perhaps more worrying for Elon Musk and SpaceX would be the cyber warfare and physical warfare component, where plans to exploit “access spoofing, virus infection and exploitation of vulnerabilities” meet plans to “eliminate” satellites already in orbit altogether.
Given that these plans were first discussed in 2023, it can be assumed that they have evolved significantly since then, although drone warfare, laser-based weapons and anti-satellite missiles have made major inroads as modern militaries prepare for asymmetric warfare in future conflicts.
For example, Chinese researchers at the Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology in Xi’an have reportedly built a ground-based microwave weapon capable of targeting low-orbit satellites, according to local media
As China and Russia also agree to implement an air defense solution as part of the “Working Protocol” signed in Moscow, which is expected to augment existing capabilities, including Russia’s S-500, the revelations indicate that China is not passively, but rather actively supporting Russia in its ongoing efforts.
This presents Elon Musk with a difficult subject and a White House backing him: the former has taken a conciliatory stance towards China, even though Tesla relies on the market for sales, houses its largest and most efficient plant and has previously resulted in favorable lease terms and loans in play from the Chinese government, while the latter may have tipped its hand based on how uncomfortably it might have triggered a ‘national security’ concern. Nvidia after Beijing intervened.
Starlink may be an important piece of the pie for both the US government and Elon Musk, but the reaction of both to Chinese plans for the service could differ significantly as a result, given what’s at stake for both entities.
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