Moore’s law, named by Gordon E. Moore, co -founder of Intel, states that the number of components on a single chip doubles every two years at minimal costs. It is not exactly tough science, but his simple observation of how fast the chip technology went back in 1965, has proven to be pretty useful for predicting where technology will be in the coming years.
In his latest blog post, Sam Altman, CEO of Openai, stated Chatgpt producers, precisely that ‘Moore’s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; This is incredibly stronger. ‘Altman referred to the massive price drop we have seen for AI use. For developers, this is measured for token costs, and the token costs to use AI have fallen approx. 10x every 12 months. Between the beginning of 2023 to the middle of 2024, the price per Token for using chatgpt falls approx. 150x.
Agi is coming
Technically, Altman took it wrong by writing “18 months” instead of “about two years”. The 18 -month figure is a common misquote as there was a separate prediction of Moore’s colleague, Intel Executive David House that Moore’s law would mean that chip performance would double every 18 months without an increase in power consumption. So a forgiving slip.
Altman’s point, however, is that the declining costs of using AI are another indicator that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be considered. “Agi is an artificial intelligence that is on par or smarter than, human intelligence, and Developing it is the whole reason why companies like Openai exist because the benefits of AGI could really be world -changing, despite the dangers we still get to warn.
It is worth reading the whole of Sam Altman’s blog post because it is very read as a warning that the future comes before than we think and that we really start to need to prepare for how the world will change. Altman’s predictions are certainly insanely. His three most important predictions for the near future are:
- Scientific progress is likely to be much faster than it is today
- The price of many items eventually dramatically falls
- The price of luxury goods and a couple of inherent limited resources such as land may rise even more dramatically
Altman does not predict that these changes happen in 2025, but since he has already gone on a record and says that humanity will achieve AGI this year, the changes appear to be just around the corner.
His message is also that we have some tough choices that come up with AGI and how free it is to be used because a possible future, “We can see that AI is used by authoritarian governments to control their population through mass surveillance and losses of autonomy. “
In Altman’s vision, it is critical to ensure that the benefits of AGI are largely distributed to prevent this from happening.
He ends with quite astonishing prediction: “Anyone in 2035 must be able to marsh the intellectual capacity that corresponds to everyone in 2025; Everyone must have access to unlimited genius to instruct, but they can imagine. “
It’s hard to know how to treat the breadth of Altman’s vision right now. Companies like Openai are obliged to develop AGI, but the dangers associated with who controls this technology is something that Altman encourages us to start considering and talking about right now.
