Of Omkar Godbole (all times one unless otherwise stated)

Bitcoin (BTC) has found some stability around its 200-day average of about $ 84,000 after dipping below $ 77,000 early last week. The wider recovery of the market was led by Memecoins, LAG-2-tokens and the game tokens.

However, maintaining a sustained Uptick could still be a challenge, especially as President Donald Trump’s administration seems to have a higher tolerance for market instability than many expected. Only two months ago, when Trump joined, the crypto market was buzzing with optimism that any turbulence created by tariffs would lead to rapid political support from the White House.

This optimism seems to have been misplaced. Over the weekend, Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that corrections are healthy and normal, a hint that the expected “Trump -Established” may take longer to realize than the merchants hoped.

More importantly, Bessent on NBC News ‘Meet the Press’ on Sunday did not exclude the possibility of a recession. This contrasts with government officials’ typical attitude to emphasize “glass half full” perspective when it gets tough.

It may mean that Trump is not ready to settle from his customs match yet and keep risk assets feel uneasy. If stock prices continue to fall, it is hard to imagine that Bitcoin remains resistant for long, especially given the lack of uplifting tales in the crypto market.

“It’s just a guess, but I doubt Trump will turn the course on Customs and his drive to bring us back to these price levels,” Greg Magadini, director of Derivatives at Amberdata, shared in an E email. “I can’t imagine a scenario where risk assets go down and crypto remains unaffected or where vix increases and cryptos implied volatility does not follow.”

Plus, atmosphere worsens on Main Street, which can add the recent risk aversion to both crypto and traditional markets. A diagram shared on X by Otavio Costa, a macro -strategist at Crescat’s Capital, highlights a record number of US consumers who expect conditions to worsen over the next year (see the chart for the day below).

Focus on macro means that dealers will follow Wednesday’s FED Meeting for signals about the central bank’s readiness to implement stimulus. The bar is low after President Powell said the bank is in a waiting-and-see state to assess the impact of Trump’s policy before cutting the rates.

In other news, Aave Lab’s founder, Stani Kulechov, confirmed that Aave Decentralized Autonomous Organization had reached a clear agreement to introduce a new token for Horizon, an Aave initiative to integrate assets in the real world into decentralized funding.

Trump is reportedly going to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war. Digital Asset Prime Broker Falconx said it had completed “first ever” block trade in CME’s Sol Futures with Stonex as a counterparty. Stay aware!

What to look at

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 17, 8:30: US Census Bureau releases February -Sales data.
    • Retail Sales Mother Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. -0.9%
    • Retail Sale Yoy Prev. 4.2%
  • March 18, 8:30: Statistics Canada Release Consumer Price Index data (CPI).
    • Core Inflation Mother earlier. 0.4%
    • Core inflation speed yoy prev. 2.1%
    • Inflation rate mother est. 0.6% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Inflation rate yoy est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 1.9%
  • March 18, 8:30: The US Census Bureau releases February -Housing Building -Data.
    • Housing starts est. 1,375 m vs. Prev. 1.366m
  • March 18, 7 p.m. 23:00: Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases its declaration of monetary policy.
    • Interest decision est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • March 19, 06:00: Eurostat Releases (Final) Data for Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI).
    • Core inflation speed yoy est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Inflation rate mother est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.3%
  • Inflation rate yoy est. 2.4% against prev. 2.5%
  • March 19, 14:00: Federal Reserve announces his interest rate. The FOMC press conference is the livestream 30 minutes later.
    • Bold Funds Interest Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
  • March 19, 17:30: The Central Bank in Brazil announces its interest decision.
    • Selic Rate Est. 14.25% against prev. 13.25%
• Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
  • March 27: Kulr Technology Group (KULR), Post-Market
  • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), Pre-Market

Token -events

• Management votes and calls
  • Aave Dao discusses the launch of Horizon, a licensed occurrence of the Aave Protocol to allow institutions to “access permission -free stablecoin liquidity while meeting issuer requirements.”
  • Balances DAO discusses the implementation of Balance V3 on up Mainnet.
  • March 17, 7 p.m. 10: Jito to hold a delegate call to discuss JIP-15, JIP-16 and its tokenomics report.
  • March 18 at. 06.00: Toncoin (Ton) to host an Ash Me Anything (AMA) session on its ecosystem extension.
  • March 18, 8 AM: Binanceto hosts an AMA session with Binance’s VP for Product Jeff Li and Binance Angel Victor Balaban.
• Unlock
  • March 18: Fast -token (FTN) to lock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $ 79.80 million.
  • March 18: mantra (about) to lock 0.51% of its circulating supply worth $ 34.1 million.
  • March 21: Immutable (IMX) to lock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $ 14.04 million.
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to lock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $ 96.8’0 million.
  • March 31: Optimism (OP) to lock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $ 27.31 million.
• Token lists
  • March 18: Jupiter (JUP) to be shown at Arkham.
  • March 18: Paws (Paws) to be performed on Bybit.
  • March 31: Binance to Devist Usdt, FDUSD, TUND, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• BNB chain trading quantities flipped them from Ethereum and Solana over the weekend.
• Decentralized exchanges (DEX) built on the BNB chain totaled over $ 1.7 billion in trading volume for each of the last three days when newer Memecoins created trading opportunities for traders.
• Pancake SWAP DEX treated over $ 1.2 billion volume in the last 24 hours, which helped increase the prices of the cake by 30%.
• Mubarak (Mubarak) Memecoin emerged as the token, which received the most attention to X, and got lists on platforms such as Binance Alpha and exchanges like Bitget on Monday.
• It was introduced through the BNB Chain-based Four Meme Launchpad on March 13 with an initial market capital as low as $ 6,000. It rose past $ 100 million on Sunday. The coin has no inherent utility beyond its meme-driven appeal, typically for many symbols in this category, which instead rely on social engagement and speculative trade.
• Data from DEXTOOLS shows a quick token issuing activity on the BNB chain from European morning hours on Monday, although most new launches do not break a market value of $ 10,000 or fall to zero when their creators pull liquidity from trading pools.
• Meanwhile, the BNB chain’s BNB has won 5% over the last 24 hours in the middle of the renewed demand and beat a wider market drop.

Derivatives Location

• The barely positive BTC and ETH -evaluated financing rates signalize caution and raise doubts about the price extraction. Several altcoins such as XRP, Ada, Sun, Dog, Link and TRX see negative rates, indicating a bias for shorts.
• BTC, ETH CME FUTURES BASIC remains low near 5%.
• Short and almost dated BTC and ETH continue to put in more expensive than calls.
• Top block streams in BTC settings on Deribit contained OTM calls sales and location of purchases.

Market Movement:

• BTC is down 0.9% from 1 p.m. 16 A Friday of $ 83,468.34 (24 Hours: -0.23%)
• ETH has fallen 0.67% of $ 1,910.26 (24 hours: +0.18%)
• Coindesk 20 has fallen 0.76% at 2,625.62 (24 hours: -0.33%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has increased by 3 BPS of 2.96%
• BTC financing rate is at 0.0075% (8.2% annual) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.14% at 103.57
• Gold is unchanged for $ 2,996.63/OZ
• Silver has increased 0.18% to $ 33.84/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.93% at 37,396.52
• Hang bed closed +0.77% at 24,145.57
• FTSE has increased 0.21% at 8,650.39
• Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.22% at 5,415.98
• Djia closed Friday+1.65% at 41,488.19
• S&P 500 CLOSED +2.13% at 5,638.94
• Nasdaq closed +2.61% at 17,754.09
• S&P/TSX Composite Index Closed +1.45% at 24,553.40
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +3.83% at 2,432.92
• US 10-year-old Treasury is down 3 bps at 4.29%
• E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are down 0.35% at 5,672.50
• E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES ARE DOWN 0.31% AT 19.858.50
• E-MINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Index Futures are down 0.39% at 41,685.00

Bitcoin -Statistics:

• BTC Dominance: 61.60 (-0.25%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02289 (0.18%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 815 EH/S
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 47.38
• Total fees: 5.22 BTC / $ 436,428
• Cme futures open interest: 149,470 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.6 oz
• BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 7.84%

Technical analysis

• The Bitcoin gold ratio has collapsed to levels last seen in early November. The slip has penetrated the tall of the relationship’s high March 2024 high and tilts it to a level of resistance.
• The 50-day SMA has topped and is also in the way to the south and wants to move under 200-day SMA in a so-called death cross. It would signal a prolonged gold output compared to Bitcoin.

Crypto shares

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed on Friday of $ 297.49 (+13%), dropped 1.91% to $ 291.80 on the market
• Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed to $ 183.12 (+3.17%), down 0.63% to $ 181.97
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed to C $ 17.98 (+8.18%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 13.18 (+8.39%), dropped 0.68% to $ 13.09
• Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 7.82 (+6.98%), down 0.77% to $ 7.76
• Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 8.81 (+1.73%), down 1.14% to $ 8.71
• CLEANSPARK (CLSK): CLOSED TO $ 7.97 (+3.64%), down 1.25% to $ 7.87
• COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 15.30 (+5.01%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 34.35 (+5.3%), down 0.79% to $ 34.08
• Exodus Movement (2.

Etf is flowing

SPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Tream: -$ 59.2 million
• Cumulative net streams: $ 35.29 billion
• Collected BTC holdings ~ 1,118 million.

SPOT ETH ETFS

• Daily Net Tream: -$ 46.9 million
• Cumulative net streams: 2.53 billion dollars
• Collected ETH holdings ~ 3,521 million.

Source: Father’s page -Investors

Flows overnight

Today’s chart

• The proportion of US consumers who expect business relationships to worsen in the coming months has hit a record high.
• The development points to a hard time for risk and growth -sensitive assets.

While you were asleep

In ether