By James Van Straten (all times one unless otherwise stated)

The day of liberation is complete and the markets finally have clarity on US tariffs. From April 5, all US trading partners face at least one 10% import tariff, with higher, country -specific tariffs that kick in on April 9 for approx. 60 countries.

President Donald Trump introduced customs duties based on perceived trade balances and non-duty barriers and said the goal is to encourage reshoring production, generating revenue to help fund tax cuts and smooth the rules of the game for US producers.

Among the most affected countries is China, which is facing a new 34% duty at the top of the existing tax, bringing the total amount to 54%. Many other Asian economies have also been severely affected, while the European Union faces a 20% duty.

There has been a growing interest in how the United States determined customs rates that the administration called mutual. A user on X claims to have broken the formula: Take a country’s trade deficit with the US and divide it after the country’s exports to the United States

For example, Vietnam exports $ 136.6 billion to the United States and imports only $ 13.1 billion, resulting in a $ 123.5 billion trading deficit. When you share the deficit with export, you get approx. 90%, which is in line with the implied mutual customs rate used by the United States.

Global warehouses are under pressure, with Nikkei 225 losing 2.8% after losing as much as 4.6% and FTSE 100 loses more than 1%. Nasdaq futures are down over 3.5%. Vietnam led losses in Asia and fell 5.5% in the worst single-day fall in over four years.

The dollar also weakened, with the Yen Rally to 147 against the American currency and the pound to 1.31. Dollar index (DXY) dropped to 102.5. Bitcoin (BTC) stays firmly over $ 83,000, though still under its 200-day sliding average of $ 86,400-a key level it needs to recover.

The very important American 10-year-old Treasury is hovering just over 4%, the lowest level since October, which is seen as a positive for the administration to get the interest rate down. Stay aware!

What to look at

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • April 3, 8:30: The US Ministry of Labor is releasing unemployment insurance data for the week ending March 29.
    • Initial unemployed claims est. 225k vs. Prev. 224k
  • April 3 at. 9:00 pm: S&P Global releases Brazil March Purchase of Manager Index (PMI) Data.
    • Composed PMI Prev. 51.2
    • Services PMI Prev. 50.6
  • April 3, 9:30: S&P Global releases Canada March Purchase of Manager Index (PMI) Data.
    • Composed PMI Prev. 46.8
    • Services PMI Prev. 46.6
  • April 3 at. 9:45pm: S&P Global Releases (Final) US March Purchase of Leadership Index (PMI) Data.
    • Composed PMI est. 53.5 vs. Prev. 51.6
    • Services PMI est. 54.3 vs. Prev. 51
  • April 3 at. 10am: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases the US March Economic Activity Data.
    • Services PMI est. 53 vs. Prev. 53.5
  • April 3 at. 10am: April 3, 10:00: The US Senate Bank Committee meets in the executive session to vote on the nominations of Paul Atkins as SEC chairman and Jonathan Gould as a controller of the currency. Livestream -link.
  • April 3 at. 12.30pm: Bold Vice President Philip N. Jefferson will give a talk entitled “US Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream -link.
  • April 4, 8:30: Statistics Canada Release March Employment Data.
    • Unemployment rate est. 6.7% against prev. 6.6%
  • April 4, 8:30: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases work employment data.
    • NonFarm -Returns est. 140k vs. Prev. 151k
    • Unemployment rate est. 4.1% against prev. 4.1%
  • April 4 at. 11:25: Fed -President Jerome H. Powell gives a talk entitled “Financial View.”
  • April 5, 12:01: Trump -Administration’s 10% baseline duty on imports from all countries comes into force.
  • April 9, 12:01: Trump administration’s higher individualized tariffs on imports from the top US trade deficit countries come into force.
• Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)

Token -events

• Management votes and calls
  • Longing DAO discusses a revised proposal to approve and finance “Bearn”, a new Under-Dao for the construction of defi products, including a yield stacked stableecoin and a BGT Liquid Locker. The proposal is looking for $ 200,000 for audit costs and $ 1 million in locked liquidity and offers 5% of Bearn -Tokens to the Lasting Treasury in return.
  • Lido Dao discusses the re-setting of Wsteth on Starknet as the canonical bridge point after a completed migration from the Legacy token.
  • April 3, 7 p.m. 9: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a Monthly Society LIVESTREAM that discusses monthly updates to the projects.
  • April 3, 14:00: Voldum to host an X-space session on the real world assets on Arbitum.
  • April 3 at. 15: Movement to host an X-room session on non-funny symbols.
  • April 3, 7 p.m. 12: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • April 3, 7 p.m. 12: Wormhole to Host an ecosystem call that covers the latest updates and developments.
  • April 7, 9 AM: Origintrail to host a “forming of AI for Good” Zoom speech.
  • April 7, 16:00: Livepeer hosts a monthly community call that focuses on governance, financing and the strategic direction of its chain box.
• Unlock
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to lock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $ 118.42 million.
  • April 5: Ethena (ENA) to lock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $ 55.30 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to lock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $ 9.73 million.
  • April 9: Movement (Move) to lock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $ 19.71 million.
  • April 12: APTOS (APT) to lock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $ 59.49 million.
• Token lists
  • April 3: Mantle (MNT), Vine Coin (Vine), CZ’s Dog (Broccoli), Moca Network (Moca) and Nakamoto Games (Naka) to be displayed on Digifinex.
  • April 3: Binance to list Gunz (Gun).
  • April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (Sparta), Derby Stars (DR), Veloce (VEXT), Bob and Kryptonite (Seilor) to be expelled from Bybit.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Treasure DAO, a decentralized video game ecosystem, restructures to expand its economic course to February 2026, with chief contributors John Paten resuming a leadership role and proposing a plan to streamline operations, reduce costs and focus on four key products: Marketplace, Bridgeworld, Smolworld and AI Agent.
• As part of cost -saving measures, 15 contributors have been abandoned or laid off, the teat said in a video posted on X, and the game release support, and the tax chain ends.
• He also suggested to deduct $ 785,000 from FlowDesk to increase the DAOS Treasury, currently owning $ 2.4 million and 22.3 million magical tokens worth $ 2.3 million.
• The teat warned that DAO, with the current combustion rate of $ 8.3 million annually and a potential decrease in Magic’s value, DAO could become unsustainable between December 2025 and February 2026 without these changes.

Derivatives Location

• BTC, ETH basis on CME and offshore exchanges stay around about an annual 5% after accommodation sale.
• XRP, BNB and SOL look negative financing rates in a sign of renewed bias for bearish, short efforts, according to Data Source Velo.
• XRM, BTC and about standing out with positive cumulative volume deltas, which suggests net acquisitions over the last 24 hours.
• The Bearish atmosphere in Deribit’s BTC and ETH options now extend to the end of June as opposed to May before the US Customs Notice.

Market movements

• BTC is down 2.17% from 16:00 a Wednesday to $ 83,799.17 (24 hours: -1.62%)
• ETH has fallen 1.93% of $ 1,844.66 (24 hours: -3.15%)
• Coindesk 20 has dropped 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24 hours: -0.07%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps at 3.02%
• BTC financing rate is at 0.0047% (5,0983% annual) on Binance

• Dxy has dropped 1.66% at 102.09
• Gold has risen 0.32% of $ 3,149.9/oz
• Silver is down 4.14% for $ 33.07/oz
• Nikkei 225 Closed -2.77% at 34,735.93
• Hang bed closed -1.52% at 22,849.81
• FTSE has dropped 1.33% at 8,494.33
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.13% at 5.191.06
• DJIA closed Wednesday +0.56% at 42,225.32
• S&P 500 CLOSED +0.67% at 5670.97
• Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17.601.05
• S&P/TSX Composite Index Closed +1.09% at 25,307.20
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.3% at 2,448.23
• US 10-year-old Treasury has fallen 7 BPS at 4.05%
• E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES have fallen 3.05% at 5,538.00
• E-MINI NASDAQ-100 futures are down by 3.3% at 19.105.25
• E-MINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX FUTURES have fallen 2.53% at 41,416.00

Bitcoin -Statistics:

• BTC Dominance: 62.86 (0.13%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02176 (0.05%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 835 EH/S
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 47.31
• Total fees: 4.43 BTC / $ 377,634
• Cme futures open interest: 138,385 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 26.5 oz
• BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 7.53%

Technical analysis

• Solana’s Sun -Token fell under $ 125, which served as a demand zone several times last year.
• The division of the most important support signals the continuation of downtrend, with the next support for $ 100 followed by $ 78, January 2024 Low.

Crypto shares

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed Wednesday of $ 312.54 (+2.13%), down 4.69% to $ 297.89 in Pre-Market
• COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): CLOSED TO $ 182.95 (+4.83%), down 5.49% to $ 172.90
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed to C $ 17.10 (+4.72%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 12.42 (+4.9%), down 6.28% to $ 11.64
• Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 8.02 (+6.37%), down 5.61% to $ 7.57
• Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 8.42 (+5.25%), down 6.18% to $ 7.90
• Cleanspark (CLSK): Closed to $ 8.02 (+6.08%), down 7.11% to $ 7.45
• COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 14.24 (+4.17%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 37.03 (+1.4%)
• Exodus Movement (2.

Etf is flowing

SPOT BTC ETFS:

• Daily Net Tream: $ 218.1 million
• Cumulative net streams: 36.33 billion dollars
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

SPOT ETH ETFS

• Daily Net Tream: -$ 51.3 million
• Cumulative net streams: 2.38 billion dollars
• Collected ETH holdings ~ 3.42 million.

Source: Father’s page -Investors

Flows overnight

Today’s chart

• Dealers on decentralized prediction platform The Polymarket now sees an over 50% chance that the US economy will slip into a recession this year.
• The prospects can weigh on risky assets in the short term.

While you were asleep

In ether