The week has begun on an interesting note, with the US dollar crashing down to three-year-olds low with losses on Wall Street, yet Bitcoin, which usually follows the mood of Wall Street, stands loud.
This could just be the beginning.
The shift away from USD and against seizure and censorship -resistant assets such as BTC and StableCecoins could accelerate if President Donald Trump follows his reported plans to fire Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell, who has pushed DXY and US stock markets lower today.
It is the lesson from Turkey that has seen its currency, Lira (sample), collapse over the years mainly because of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated interference in the central bank’s operations. The sliding Lira has triggered a capital flight to BTC and StableCecoins since at least 2020-21.
Trump’s problems with bold
Trump has celebrated publicly with the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for years and criticized Powell for being late on interest rates, even during his first period, where interest rates were far lower than today.
However, Trump’s criticism has recently reached a fever height with reports suggesting he is looking for ways to get rid of Powell, who recently warned of stagflation, even when the president repeated the call for lower borrowing costs while suggesting there is no inflation.
Powell’s patient approach follows a trade war -led increase in study -based goals for inflation expectations that can always become self -fulfilling.
Still Monday, Trump went on and called Powell a “Major Loser” and warned that the economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately.
Lesson from Turkey
Erdogan began to interfere in the central bank’s operations in 2019, and since then Lira has collapsed seven times from 5.3 per day. Dollar for 38 per Dollar.
It all started with Turkey’s inflation rate reaching double digits in 2017. It remained elevated in the following year, prompting the country’s central bank to increase the Repo rate of one week from 17.5% to 24% in September 2018.
The move probably did not go well with Erodgan, who issued the first decree that rejected the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Murat Cetinkaya in July 2019. From then, Erdogan issued several decree to reject and hire more CBT officials. In the midst of all this, inflation remained elevated, and Lira continued to write off at an alarming speed.
“We certainly do not believe in high interest rates. We will pull inflation down and exchange rates with low -speed policy … High interest rates make the rich richer, the poor poor. We do not let it happen,” Erdogan said in 2021.
From 2025, Turkey faces inflation of almost 40%, according to data source economy.
This episode serves as a cautionary narrative for Trump, which emphasizes that manipulation with the central bank’s independence – especially in the light of threatening inflation – can erode the investor’s confidence and send the domestic currency to a tail.
This does not necessarily mean that the USD will go down exactly like Lira, but can see significant devaluation.
It may prove to be even more destabilizing to global markets, given that the dollar is a global reserve currency and the US Treasury Market is the cornerstone of international funding.
If better sense is not seen, US investors may feel incentives to move away from US assets and into BTC and other alternative investments, just as the Turks did.