This is a daily technical analysis of Coindesk analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole.
A momentum indicator, with a strong track record for forecasts of larger Bitcoin (BTC) price movements, has turned Bullish, reinforces analysts’ recent predictions of a rally to $ 150,000 – $ 200,000.
The technical analysis indicator is called the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which represents the difference between the MacD line and its signaling line. The MacD line is calculated by drawing the 26-period (days or weeks) exponentially sliding average (EMA) from the 12 period EMA for an asset price. The signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MacD line itself.
A positive shift in the MACD histogram is interpreted as a transition from Bearish to Bullish Momentum and is largely considered a purchase signal by dealers.
BTC’s weekly chart MACD is crossed over zero, indicating a renewed bullish momentum.
The latest Bullish Signal follows Bitcoin’s Bounce from the 50-week simple sliding average (SMA), repeating patterns observed in mid-2024 and early 2023. On both occasions, BTC then experienced strong events.
Note how MacD turned positively in the second half of October, warning of a big move higher. BTC broke over $ 70,000 in early November and eventually reached record heights in December.
Over the past five years, MACD has crossed to positive territory five times with only a false signal in March 2022 caught bulls (marked with circle) on the wrong side of the market.
The latest signal is in line with the Bullish Macro image and analysts’ call to a rally to higher levels. Early this week, Standard Chartered said institutional adoption and investment slave could lift Bitcoin as high as $ 200k.
In a report that was shared with Coindesk on Tuesday, analysts at BitFinex said BTC is developing into a global macrose reserve asset and could rise to $ 150,000- $ 180,000 by 2025-26.
