The profits on current account in Pakistan, powered by transfers, have been on a falling lane as it dropped sharply in April 2025 to $ 12 million, a significant decline from $ 315 million in April 2024 and $ 1.2 billion in March 2025.

In April 2025, Pakistan’s current account surplus dropped sharply, primarily due to rising imports and a 22% month-to-month drop in transfers, said Ali Najib, Sales Manager at Insight Securities.

Despite the monthly slowdown, the cumulative surplus in the first 10 months of the FY 2025 (July-April) reached $ 1.9 billion, a large turnaround from the $ 1.34 billion deficit recorded in the same period of FY24, reflecting improved external intervention and transferring according to the latest balance between payment data. Pakistan (SBP).

“Last time Pakistan saw a surplus on running accounts for excess accounts over 14 years ago, making this a remarkable development for a country that was long of external imbalances,” Sana Tawfik and Rao Aamir Ali of Arif Habib Limited (AHL) wrote research into a report.

Transfers lead the road

The primary driving force behind the turn is a sharp increase in workers’ transfers that grew 31% years to years (yoy) to $ 31.2 billion in 10mfy25. In April alone, transfers of $ 3.2 billion, an increase of 13% year. The largest influx came from Saudi -Arabia ($ 728 million, an increase of 2%), UAE ($ 658 million, an increase of 21%) and Britain ($ 535 million, an increase of 33%).

Analysts consider this a crucial pillow against rising imports and investment -related outflows. “The wave in transfers has been instrumental in not only equalizing the trade deficit, but in obtaining a total surplus in ongoing account,” AHL noted in his report.

Looking ahead, the mediation expects the FY25 to close with a profit of $ 1.6 billion, primarily due to expected inflow of the entire year of $ 37.4 billion, representing a 24% yoy growth.

Trade deficit is expanded

While the overall external position has improved, the trade balance remains a structural problem. Pakistan’s goods imports increased 12% of $ 48.6 billion over 10 MFY25. In April alone, imports 18% yoy and 6% month to month (mother) rose to $ 5.2 billion, led by petroleum ($ 1.2 billion), machines ($ 792 million) and chemicals ($ 790 million).

The sharp volatility highlights dependence on transfers and external influx that pose the risk of persistent balance of payments stability, Najib said.

Goods export, although higher yoy to $ 27.3 billion, fell 1% in April 2025 compared to the same month last year and fell 6% from March 2025. As a result, the item-trading deficit expanded 19% yoy to $ 21.3 billion in the 10-month period.

The service sector showed modest improvement. Exports of services rose 9% yoy to $ 6.9 billion in 10mfy25, supported by technology exports grew 21% yoy to $ 3.14 billion, accounting for 44% of the total export of services. However, the total trade balance in goods and services issued a total deficit of $ 23.8 billion, up from $ 20.4 billion in the same period last year.

The primary income account, which largely reflects interest and dividends on foreign debt and investment, issued a $ 7.13 billion loss in 10 MFY25, an increase of 13% yoy. In April, the $ 603 million deficit was slightly higher than April 2024, but down 8% from March.

On the other hand, the secondary income balance that includes transfers showed a robust increase of 30% to $ 32.8 billion, playing a key role in running the profits in running account.

However, foreign direct investments (FDI) remained muted and fleeting. Net FDI for April was $ 141 million, up from $ 26 million in March. Cumulatively, Netto FDI dropped 3% yoy to $ 1.79 billion in 10mfy25. AHL noted that although there has been some pickup in recent months, FDI flows remain concentrated and lack diversification across sectors.

The financial account, which includes foreign investment and external borrowing, recorded a $ 1.6 billion profit in 10 MFY25 compared to a $ 4.2 billion deficit last year, signaling an improved capital power environment.

Optimus Capital Research Head Maaz Azam noted that the trade deficit reported by SBP in April 2025 reported by SBP was lower by $ 762 million to $ 2,626 million compared to numbers released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

According to AZAM, this discrepancy derives from differences in export and import reporting, with SBP showing exports higher with $ 470 million to $ 2,611 million and imports lower by $ 292 million to $ 5,237 million compared to the PBS data. This variance significantly affected the external account result, resulting in an almost flat balance between running accounts, “as opposed to the market’s expectations of a slight deficit.”