Record Highs – Be it $ 20,000 in 2017, $ 69,000 in 2021 and $ 109,000 this year – are good at headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don’t do a good job of describing price action.

Tracking the “realized price” or the average price where Bitcoin

is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a market -covering cost basis is a more valuable tool to measure the investor’s profitability and potential bending points in the market mood.

The diagrams (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market that started January 1 of 2017 to 2025.

The average realized price for 2025 so far is $ 93,266. With Bitcoin currently trading at $ 105,000, these investors have risen by about 12% on average.

When Bitcoin began its fall from all the time of $ 109,000 at the end of January, it fell briefly below the realized award in 2025, a historic signal of capitulation. This period of stress lasted until April 22, when the award regained the cohort’s cost basis.

Historical context: Compulation patterns

Historically, when the price falls below a cohort’s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclic bottom bottom:

• 2024: After the ETF launch in January, Bitcoin dipped during the average cost basis before rebounding. A more marked capitulation followed in the summer, which is attached to the yen berry that relaxes as Bitcoin threw himself to $ 49,000.
• 2023: Price is traced close to the average cost basis below the support levels, only short breaks under the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March.

The data suggests that a capitulation phase has probably taken place, which places the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, the recovery of such events marks transitions to healthier market conditions.

Realized, not admission

When Bitcoin first surpassed $ 20,000 during the Bull market for 2017, it marked a significant deviation between the market price and the realized price of only $ 5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Not surprisingly, prices went very short after a brutal turn.

In contrast, in the depth of the 2018 bear market, as Bitcoin tied around $ 3,200, the price converted at the time with the realized price at all times, a metric that brings together the cost basis for all investors across bikes.

This long -term cost base acts as a basic level of support in bear markets and gradually increases over time when new capital enters the market. Therefore, Bitcoin estimates only by comparing cycling peaks, for example from $ 69,000 in 2021 to just over $ 100,000 in 2025, the larger picture.

The more relevant insight is that the total cost basis for all investors continues to climb, emphasizes the long -term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital obliged to the network.