A year ago, the markets were rattled by the yen berry. As Japan switched to a tighter monetary policy and the bond yield increased, the strategy of borrowing in a low-interesting currency such as Yen to buy assets with higher yields became less attractive.
At that time, capital quickly fled at risk. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped sharply and fell nearly 30% to $ 49,000, a level previously seen at the time of the US Spot ETF debut in January 2024.
Since then, however, the largest cryptocurrency of market capital has rebounded strongly and a total of over 130% in the past year. Traditional markets also worked well, with the S&P 500 rising 24% and gold appreciated 40%, reflecting the growing demand for both risk and defensive assets.
In contrast, the dollar index (DXY), a meter of the US currency against a basket of peers, is weakened to just under 100 from 103, as returns on long dated bonds marsized higher. The US 10-year dividend rose to 4.2% from 3.7%, while the 30-year-old rose to 4.8% from 4.0%. The shifts were reinforced by international interest rate forces, with the UK’s 30-year-old dividend climbing to 5.3% from 4.3% and Japan’s sky high to over 3% from 1.9%.
Despite the pricing volatility, long-term Bitcoin holders have steadily increased their share of supply.
According to Glassnode’s HODL wave card, which visualizes the distribution of Bitcoin supply by age, each colored tape represents the percentage of BTC that existed that last moved within a specific time interval. The tapes together show how long coins have been kept, providing insight into investor behavior and conviction over time.
The 7 to 10-year-old cohort now has over 8%, up from 4% a year ago, while 6 to 12-month holders have risen from 8% to 15%. This suggests that the longer term holders remain confident and are still accumulating while newer investors entered the market under the rally.
While a larger percentage of the supply is now owned by the holders of under-3 months than in 2024, which indicates that many buyers have probably entered into higher prices, it may be chasing tops instead of buying the lows.
