From AirDrop to Frefall: Celestias Tokenomics under Fire

When Celestia Air dropped its TIA Token to 580,000 users by 2023, it was flat du jour of traders and investors where the project said the release adapted to a new “modular era.”

Despite gathering for a staggering $ 20 award point in September 2024, it has since fallen to less than $ 1.65 in a desperate situation spurred by a number of massive cliffs in token’s vesting plan.

Tokenomist data shows that core contributors and early backers, especially a number of venture capitalists, could sell tokens purchased for relatively cheap in early fundraising -rounds on the open market.

This coincided with TiA’s precipitated relocation to the downside, although it is worth noting that token’s market capital, which is currently $ 1.2 billion, actually rose by 50% despite the token losing 90% of its value due to the pure supply scale is rising.

Other examples

TIA’s price collapse mirrors similar features across newer tokens. Blast’s 10.5 billion token lock in June, over half of its supply, sent prices tumbling at all time low time as investors struggled to absorb the sudden flooding of liquidity.

Berachain also suffered large losses after its air drop and early earned cliffs triggered a long clamp and cut its token almost half from launch heights. Meanwhile, Omni Networks token fell over 50% within a day of his debut when the early recipients rushed to sell.

These cases emphasize how aggressive earning plans and poor liquidity after launch continue to weigh on token performance, even among the most hyped projects.

What is next for TIA: a clamp or slowly relax?

With Celestias Tia -Token down over 90% from its heights, investors now see if the asset is bundle or loosening. After an October 2024 Cliff Unlock, releasing 176 million tokens (almost doubled circulating supply), TIA has entered a phase of stable linear emissions. About 409 million more tokens are scheduled to west through early 2027 and add continuously pressure on the price.

Some dealers see a setup for a short clamp. According to Stix’s leader of trading in Taran Sabharwal, a significant part of unlocked tokens over-the-counter was sold with buyers that were hitting via Eternal. This has led to increased open interest and negative funding, a dynamic that, if turned, could force shorts to cover. “Financing is deeply negative,” Sabharwal said. “If it is reset you could see a pop.”

But with a clamp remains basic weak. Monthly vesting continues, liquidity is thin and new demand for TIA is limited. Without a fresh catalyst, such as growth in Celestia’s modular ecosystem, TIA risks further disadvantage as each unlocking adds to sell pressure on an already oversighted market.

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