Donald Trump’s dismissal two weeks ago Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika Mcenter and nomination of Ej Antoni as her replacement generates lots of “Inside Baseball” talk among the political class.
But the president-so-so-unusual and hammered as his methods are-tumbling over a truth that was hidden in ordinary sight: that the government-economic data that markets and business leaders have invoked to the distribution of hundreds of billions in capital are just not very accurate?
“I would probably also have fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” wrote Ray Dalio, founder and now former CEO of Hedge Fund Giant Bridgewater. “Its process to make estimates is obviously outdated and mistakenly exposed, and there is no good plan in the works to solve it,” he continued.
Dalio noted that the massive downward revisions in May and June employment data included in the July report were “symptomatic” of the council within BLS. Private estimates, Dalio said, was far better. “I know a lot about how I use data to follow the economy and bet on where it goes,” he said.
Trump’s nominated replacement on top of BLS, Ej Antoni, has called the agency’s data “BS,” and earlier this week suggested the suspension of monthly employment reports in favor of quarterly release until improvements can be made.
BLS produces not only employment data, but also the consumer price index, which for many years has been subjected to criticism from all quarters for not accurately describing the inflation pressure that Americans felt.
