The copper-to-gold ratio is widely followed as a macro indicator of economic momentum and investors’ risk appetite. Historically, it has shown a remarkable relationship with bitcoin according to SuperBitcoinBro.
Copper is strongly tied to industrial demand and tends to perform well during periods of economic expansion. Gold, on the other hand, is a defensive asset that typically performs better in periods of greater uncertainty and slower growth.
When the ratio between the two is increasing, it signals a risk environment, while a decreasing ratio points to risk aversion.
Large peaks in the ratio, seen in 2013, 2017 and 2021, have coincided with cycle highs in bitcoin prices. These periods reflected strong global growth expectations and heightened speculative risk-taking across assets.
More important for bitcoin, however, has been the behavior of the ratio after prolonged declines. A reversal in the ratio has often preceded significant bitcoin rallies, especially when they coincide with bitcoin halving cycles.
Bitcoin halvings, which reduce payouts to miners by 50%, happen roughly every four years and tighten supply. Historically, they have acted as a catalyst for long-term bull markets.
During the fourth bitcoin halving, in April 2024, the copper-to-gold ratio was still declining. That dynamic has since changed. The ratio is now near 0.00136 after being tied in October around 0.00116.
At the same time, copper prices are pushing through $6 a pound at all times, while gold is trading near $4,455 an ounce, also close to a record. Over the past three months, copper has risen by 18% and gold by 14%.
If copper’s strength reflects improved growth expectations rather than pure supply constraints, the resulting risk on the signal could support a bitcoin rally in 2026.
