Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories in US hours and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, be pardoned?
Bettors on Polymarket say it’s a long shot, but odds are up 5 percentage points to 12% after Binance founder Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao was pardoned by Trump on Thursday US time. Over at Kalshi, there was a bigger jump, with a contract asking for an SBF pardon rising 9 percentage points to 16%.
Earlier this year, SBF went on a media charm offensive with an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast as part of a broader effort to reshape his public image and lay the groundwork for a potential presidential pardon.
The former FTX chief has leaned into conservative media, claiming he was punished for supporting Republicans, while his parents are quietly courting allies in President Donald Trump’s circle, hoping to win clemency for their son’s 25-year prison sentence.
Although the odds of SBF getting a pardon are currently low, Polymarket traders were caught off guard by Trump’s decision to pardon CZ.
For most of the contract’s life, the odds of a pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, signaling widespread skepticism that any leniency was on the way.
Because as accurate as research shows prediction markets are, they sometimes miss things by underpricing odds of outcomes. Maybe they do the same with SBF, because a surprise pardon would be that kind of finale twist The altruists – the upcoming Netflix series about the collapse of FTX – writers would cut to be too far out right up until it happens.
Market movement:
BTC: Bitcoin rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday’s decline as markets rallied ahead of Friday’s September inflation report.
ETH: Ether is trading near $3,850 as analysts point to a potential Wyckoff re-accumulation phase, with increasing institutional demand fueling speculation of an $8,000-$10,000 breakout later this cycle.
Gold: Gold is trading around $4,126, up nearly 50% this year after hitting a record above $4,000, as geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty and strong central bank purchases drive demand, although Morgan Stanley warns high prices could curb jewelry and reserve purchases, even as it raises its 2026 forecast to $4,400.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.78% after the White House confirmed Trump-Xi talks next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Fireblocks buys crypto authentication startup Dynamic, completes its ‘custodial-to-consumer’ offerings (The Block)
- Alt5 Sigma Suspends CEO Peter Tassiopoulos, Appoints Jonathan Hugh as Interim Leader (CoinDesk)
- Trezor Unveils ‘Quantum-Ready’ Safe 7 Hardware Wallet (Decrypt)
