DHAKA: Protests in Bangladesh, which overturned the government last year, triggered a diplomatic turn, with Dhaka warming against China after the nearby India became angry at the eject of his old allied Sheikh Hasina.
A year ago the protests risk this transformation polarization – and fear of external interference – as political parties in Bangladesh Jostle for influence prior to the election next year.
For the caretaker government seeking domestic consensus to review democratic institutions in the country with 170 million people, juggling is another challenge.
“The relationship between India-Bangladesh has probably never experienced such an intense load before,” said the new Delhi-based analyst Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group.
There are deep resentment in Dhaka over the fate of the fleeing ex-Prime minister Hasina, who escaped from a student-led uprising by a helicopter in August 2024 and flew to New Delhi as thousands of protesters stormed her palace.
Interim leader Muhammad Yunus said the popular anger of the Muslim majority Bangladesh had been “transferred to India” because Hasina was offered a shrine by New Delhi’s Hindu nationalist government.
Hasina, 77, has defied extradition orders to participate in her crimes against human law and has already been sentenced in the absence of disdain for the court with a six -month judgment.
‘Adjustment’
MD Touhid Hossain, who heads Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry, said “the relationship is now at the adjustment stage”.
Nobel Peace Prize winner Yunus’ first state visit was in China in March, a trip that saw him secure $ 2.1 billion in investments, loans and grants.
Beijing has also aimed at leading politicians directly.
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior leader for Bangladesh Nationalist Party (GDP) – the expected electoral froor – said China is “eager” to work with the next elected government with “sincerity, steadfastness, love and love”.
India has long been wary of China’s growing regional threat, and the world’s two most populous countries are competing for influence in South Asia despite a recent diplomatic thaw.
Bangladesh has also moved closer to Pakistan, India’s Archdy.
In May, more than 70 people were killed for four days of missile, drone and artillery-fire between the forces of New Delhi and Islamabad, caused by a deadly militant attack on civilians in India who illegally occupied Kashmir.
The following month, officials from Dhaka and Islamabad met colleagues in China.
Spokesman for Chinese Foreign Ministry Guo Jiakun said the trio had accepted that “collaborative programs”, including in trade, industry, education and agriculture.
Obaidul Haque, who teaches international relations at the University of Dhaka, said conversations with Beijing had “borne fruit”, including alternative healthcare, after once popular medical tourism to India was limited.
“For example, China appointed three hospitals to Bangladeshi patients when India made access to difficult,” he said.
‘Tread carefully’
Bangladesh and Pakistan – who split in 1971 after Dhaka’s Independence War – began trading in Sø last year, with direct flights also planned.
It triggered concern in New Delhi.
“The current Indian political leadership because of its ideological foundations … is unwilling to accept Dhaka under a government they perceive as Islamist and hostile to India,” Donthi said.
“The visible commitment between Dhaka, Islamabad and Beijing further improves this view.”
Both New Delhi and Bangladesh have introduced trade restrictions for each other.
India, which surrounds much of Bangladesh on land, has introduced several trade limits-including tightening of the rules on Indian imports of jute fibers, finished clothes, plastic products and food.
But trade between the nearby nations remains high, said MD Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi ambassador to Washington, who has also served in India.
But he called for caution and said that Dhaka should “step carefully form alliances” and try to strengthen “multilateral relationships” as a balance.
“Cooperation still exists between the countries, but the heat is gone,” he said.
‘Attempt to undermine’
Separately, Bangladesh, the world’s second largest clothing exporter, has also been caught in global shakeup caused by US President Donald Trump’s duty.
Dhaka suggests buying Boeing aircraft and increasing imports of us wheat, cotton and oil in an attempt to reduce the trade deficit, with Yunus in June talking about US State Secretary Marco Rubio about his “commitment to strengthen” ties.
But with regard to regional tensions, analysts say Little will change soon – and warn that they have the potential to escalate.
“Things can only change if New Delhi is happy with the election process and sees someone who is available to it, come to power in Dhaka,” added the Donthi of the Crisis Group.
“It is very unlikely that their attitude will change against the current government in Dhaka,” he said.
“There may be attempts to undermine it rather than to cooperate.”
