By Francisco Rodrigues (all times one unless otherwise stated)
Global markets are taking water when investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s latest political features coming later today. It is almost a given fat will reduce the interest rate by 25 basic points. Dealers will instead focus on President Jerome Powell for signs of future policy.
The cryptocurrency market is no different. Over the past 24 hours, Coindesk 20 (CD20) index is practically unchanged, only an increase of 0.2%, while Bitcoin (BTC) is about 1% higher. Gold that rose to a record $ 3,700 this week slid 0.5%. US Dollar Index added less than 0.2%.
Shares markets have hardly moved as well. US stocks slipped in yesterday’s session, while European shares edged higher. FTSE-HELE The World Index put forward less than 0.1% today.
It’s today. But over a long period of time, Cryptocurrencies has hung behind shares.
In the last 30 days, the FTSE-HEEL rose the world index 2.78%, while Coindesk 20 added 2.6%and BTC rose 1.6%. The movements suggest caution, even before the interest rate cut that would increase the appeal to risk assets.
Investors are currently being priced in six interest rates. Three this year and three next year.
“The market’s expectations are placed in a Goldilocks series: Six cuts represent an intermediate plot between caution and aggression,” Analysts wrote in QCP Capital in a note.
“However, a deviation in the dot plot would challenge this balance, forcing investors to calibrate around the risk of tighter than expected conditions or a fed that is struggling to respond effectively to weaker growth,” the analysts added.
Markets Real Test will be Powell’s press conference. A balanced message is likely to further support risk assets, while hesitation would force investors to reassess.
Despite the uncertainty, the demand for Spot Crypto ETFs has been robust. This week, net inflow for Spot BTC ETFs is about $ 550 million, while ether -Tfs brought in almost $ 300 million. Stay aware!
What to look at
- Crypto
- Nothing planned.
- Macro
- September 17, 9:45: Canada benchmark interest decision est. 2.5% followed by a press conference.
- September 17, 14:00: Bold decision on US interest rates, including updated prote projections. Est. 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25%, followed by a press conference.
- September 17 at. 17:30: Brazil Benchmark Interest Decision Est. 15%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
- No planned.
Token -events
- Management votes and calls
- Mantledao votes to keep the budget 2025-2026 for $ 52 million USDC and $ 200 million. Voting ends September 18th.
- September 17 at. 06.00: Dydx hosts an analyst call.
- Unlock
- September 17: Zksync (ZK) to lock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $ 10.54 million.
- Token launches
- September 18: Deadline to convert MKR to Sky before the delayed upgrade penalty comes into force.
Conferences
- Day 2 of 2: Really Summit-Summit (New York)
- September 17: Bitcoin Treasuries NYC Unconference (New York)
- Day 1 of 3: AIBC 2025 (Tokyo, Japan)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade with a tight range and rises slightly to $ 116,000 in the last 24 hours, but fails to create speed for a break.
- Altcoins take advantage of the lack of volatility with several spikes leading to Bitcoin dominance sliding to an eight-month low of 57%, according to CoinMarketcap data.
- Dominance is a metric that is often used to assess whether capital flows into Bitcoin or more speculative altcoins, as it seems to be the case.
- Another bullish factor for altcoins is that the average crypto -token RSI, an abbreviation for relative strength index, is 45.47. This means that Altcoin’s edges into “oversold” territory as opposed to “overbought”, suggesting that several tokens are founded for an extension to the upside.
- It is worth noting that Bitcoin dominance dropped to 33% in 2017 and 40% in 2021, which means that Altcoins still have more room to drive.
- Much will depend on how Bitcoin works if it starts testing record heights of $ 124,000. A breakout on a significant volume is likely to lead to a capital rotation back to the biggest cryptocurrency when investors try to exploit a potential cyclushøj, with the personalities like Eric Trump, which requires $ 175,000 by the end of the year.
Derivatives Location
- BTC Futures Open Interest across larger venues has sneaked up to $ 32 billion over the past week.
- At the same time, the three-month annual basis has begun to compress again for approx. 6-7% across binance, OKX and abandoned, leaving trading only marginally profitable.
- While OI growth suggests increasing the activity and commitment in the market, it indicates the narrowing basis that directional conviction, especially on the bullish side, is weakening, with dealers less willing to pay a high prize for future exposure.
- The election data also presents a complex image of market mood.
- While BTC implicated volatility concept structure diagram shows an upward slope curve, suggesting that the market expects long -term volatility to be higher than short -lived, other measurements point to a more immediate bearish view.
- Specifically, the 25 Delta Skew diagram indicates that the bias is either flat or slightly negative for short-term options (1-week, 1-month), which means dealers pay a prize to put calls to get protection against falls.
- This short-term Bearish vibe is directly opposed by the 24-hour put-call volumend diagram showing a higher amount of calls than puts, indicating that most options that most options over the last 24 hours were placed for a price increase.
- Financing frequency APRS across major perpetual Swap venues has recently begun to show some collection with BTC financing at the moment of 17%.
- If the Uptrenden is maintained and followed by other venues, the financing rates suggest growing conviction in a directional, more bullish rate on prices.
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.22% from 1 p.m. 16 A Wednesday to $ 116,637.44 (24 hours: +1.01%)
- ETH is unchanged to $ 4,498.24 (24 hours: +0.00%)
- Coindesk 20 has dropped 0.58% at 4,272.21 (24 hours: +0.1%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.86%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0077% (8,4589% annually) on Binance
- DXY has increased by 0.14% at 96.76
- Gold Futures have fallen 0.52% of $ 3,705.60
- Silver Futures are down 2.14% for $ 42.00
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.25% at 44,790.38
- Hang bed closed 1.78% at 26,908.39
- FTSE has increased by 0.20% at 9,213.65
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.11% at 5,377.98
- DJIA shut down on Tuesday down 0.27% at 45,757.90
- S&P 500 closed 0.13% at 6,606.76
- Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,333.96
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.39% at 29,315.23
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.52% at 2,919.60
- US 10-year-old Treasury has dropped 1 BPS on 4.016%
- E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are unchanged at 6,669.00
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES are unchanged at 24,525.25
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 46,146.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.3% (unchanged)
- Ether-Bitcoin ratio: 0.0386 (0.15%)
- Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 1,021 EH/S
- Hashprice (Spot): $ 54.43
- Total fees: 4.18 BTC / $ 483,499
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,220 BTC
- BTC Priced in gold: 31.8 oz.
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.91%
Technical analysis
- Bitcoin has risen from $ 107K to $ 117K, now trading over all important daily exponential moving average.
- Despite this strength, the wider bias remain careful.
- In order for Momentum to continue, Bulls will look for a crucial recycling of the daily order block between $ 117K and $ 119K, an area that is also in line with the weekly order block created in early August.
Crypto shares
- COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): CLOSED Tuesday at $ 327.91 (+0.27%), -0.52% to $ 326.19 on the market before market
- CIRCLE (CRCL): CLOSED TO $ 134.81 ( +0.57%), +1.07% TO $ 136.25
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 31.83 (+3.44%), -1.35% to $ 31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed to $ 51.36 (+0.55%), -0.35% to $ 51.18
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 17.53 (+7.94%), -0.34% to $ 17.47
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 17.52 ( +5.04%), +0.23% to $ 17.56
- Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 16.18 (-0.86%), unchanged in the market before market
- Cleanspark (CLSK): Closed at $ 11.20 (+8.84%), unchanged in market
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 39.86 (+2.92%), -1.15% TO $ 39.40
- Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed to $ 29.70 (+6.53%), -1.11% to $ 29.37
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): CLOSED TO $ 335.09 ( +2.23%), +0.21% TO $ 335.80
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 29.11 (+2.54%)
- Sharplink Gaming (SBet): Closed to $ 16.95 (+0.95%), unchanged in the market before market
- Upexi (Upxi): Closed to $ 5.82 (-8.06%), +3.09% to $ 6
- Lite Strategy (LITS): CLOSED TO $ 2.69 (-7.56%), +10.43% to $ 3.07
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 292.3 million
- Cumulative net streams: 57.34 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily net streams: -$ 61.7 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 13.68 billion
- Collected Eth Holdings ~ 6.61 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
While you were asleep
- Metaplanet creates us, Japan-subsidiaries, buy Bitcoin.JP domain (Coindesk): The world’s sixth largest BTC Treasury Company formed Bitcoin Japan to run Bitcoin-focused media platforms and US-based meta-plane income to generate revenue from Bitcoin-related financial products.
- 21Shares hit 50 Crypto ETPs in Europe with the launch of AI and Raydium-Focused products: 21Shares introduces two crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), a tracing of a group of decentralized AI protocols and one offering exposure to the token by Solana-based decentralized Exchange Raydium.
- Hex Trust adds custody and efforts for Lidos Steth, expansion of institutional access to Ethereum Rewards (Coindsk): The company’s stacking function gives clients access to access to stacking rewards and decentralized finance (DEFI) Liquidity tools for Steth without creating their own infrastructure.
- Three things Britain wants from Trump’s State Visits – except for Business Agreements (CNBC): The United Kingdom Wishes Trump’s visit to promote the unfinished trade agreement, tackle obstacles such as steel and aluminum starfish and lock investments from black rock, alphabet and blackstone.
- The British watchdog to waive some rules for Cryptoasset (Financial Times): FCA says it will adapt the rules of Crypto’s unique risks that pledge stricter protection measures to technology and resilience while investigating whether investors should gain wider consumer protection.
