MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and long seen as a leveraged bet on crypto, has shed nearly $18 billion in market capitalization as enthusiasm dried up and its net asset value (mNAV) premium collapsed in recent months.
The stock may be poised for a rebound as a number of key catalysts could reverse the bearish trend as early as this week, according to a fresh report from 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, who had previously been bearish on the name.
“At today’s rate, with the NAV premium largely gone, volatility trending higher, and a potential catalyst in the form of strong Q3 earnings and renewed S&P 500 inclusion speculation, we see Strategy as attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote, noting that the stock here could offer better value than bitcoin itself.
The stock’s drop to below $280 (down another 1.8% on Wednesday) has left the market capitalization at barely above the value of bitcoin on the company’s balance sheet. That marks a sharp turnaround from late 2024, when speculative premiums, Thielen said, pushed the stock far above its fundamentals.
While the 40% decline since July has “washed out” sentiment and low retail interest, the company’s earnings report on Thursday could mark a turning point, Thielen said.
He expects the firm to report a profit of around $3.6 billion from mark-to-market gains on its BTC holdings. The gain could reset speculation for a potential S&P 500 index admission decision in December — a move Thielen has now assigned a 60-70% probability.
Including the stock in one of the major stock indexes in the world could drive up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, setting MSTR up for a similar rally seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) following their admissions into the S&P 500.
“Surrender always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” Thielen said.
Read more: Saylor’s Strategy the First Bitcoin Treasury Company Rated by Major Credit Agency
