Good morning, Asia. Here’s what makes news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily overview of top stories during the US HOURS and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Coindesk’s Crypto Doybook Americas.
When East Asia begins its trading day, Bitcoin (BTC) changes the hands of just over $ 115K, staging a modest rebound from last week’s sale, which saw over $ 1 billion in geared lengths liquidated and BTC cards testing $ 113K.
Bounce comes in the midst of signs of stabilization in institutional currents, with Bitwise reports $ 18.74 million in net inflow, a potential reversal after one of the biggest ETF Extension days on the record last Friday.
The latest correction, which marked BTC’s third straight Friday sale, was driven by a Hawkish macrococktail: Weak American Job Data and a fresh wave of customs duties from Washington, triggering a wider risk-off mood in both stocks and crypto. Altcoin’s bar brown of the move, with sun dropping almost 20% in the week and ETH lost close to 10%.
Despite the fall, QCP capital remains gently optimistic.
“The wider structural setup remains intact,” the company wrote in a Monday note and quoted BTC’s highest ever monthly close in July.
QCP considers the sale as a gearing rinse instead of a trend reversal pointing to historic post-rally shake that cleared the path of renewed accumulation.
That said, market coverage behavior suggests that investors do not exclude deeper disadvantages. At the Polymarket, dealers currently assign a 49% probability that BTC will dip below $ 100,000 by the end of 2025 – an increase of 2 percentage points from the day before.
Pricing reflects a market that is still on edge, with downward tail risk, which is priced despite supportive long-term basic elements, such as regulatory clarity, growing stableecoin adoption and tokenization initiatives.
The next catalyst could come during the Asia trading day, as US issuers report floats, which typically happen in mid-day Hong Kong time.
If ETF flow continues and hinted volatility begins to compress, it can give the confirmation needed for the market to embrace the buy-the-dip tale and shake macro-jitters that have held it to neutral.
Market Rediators:
BTC: Bitcoin is trading back over $ 115,000 and signalizing early signs of market stabilization.
ETH: Ether holding steady about $ 3,700, with polymarket dealers showing confidence that it will break over $ 4,000 sometime in August.
Gold: Gold expanded his rally to a third session on Monday, rising to a two-week tall as soft US financial data increased expectations of a September-fed SATS reduction, where CME dealers are now pricing at an 86% chance of it happening.
Nikkei 225: The markets of the Asia-Stophand opened higher after US President Donald Trump revealed plans to increase the duty of Indian exports. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% at the open.
S&P 500: Shares rebound Monday, with S&P 500, 1.47% rose to 6,329.94, cracked a four-day losing row and marked its best session since May.
Elsewhere in crypto:
- DCGS Barry Silbert returns to gray scale as chairman in the middle of IPO (Coindesk)
- Former Chancellor Osborne Warns UK is ‘completely left’ on Crypto (Decrypt)
- Pantera leads $ 20 million raising to Openmind’s decentralized operating system to robots (block)
