By James Van Straten (all times one unless otherwise stated)
If Monday’s trade performance in crypto and related shares is any indication of what October and the fourth quarter can entail, it can be a lively period for an industry that is still behind both US stocks and metals.
Skipped 5% from Friday’s fear -driven session to a more neutral attitude towards $ 114,000 Monday, showing how fast mood measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index can change.
The biggest cryptocurrency still abandoned some of these gains and recently traded around $ 112,800. It probably needs gold to give up some attention before the next move was higher.
However, it can be a challenge. Gold continues to surpass, deliver almost 50% years to date returns and climb to another record high over $ 3,870 earlier today. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) cannot generate speed and has fallen below 98, which is positive for risk state.
Meanwhile, an impending US government is threatening to influence political decisions around crypto more than any other area.
Shares tied to artificial intelligence and high performance computing are still gaining strength. Robinhood (HOOD), the trading platform added the S&P 500 in its latest rebalans, so its stock price jump 12% Monday when the quarter is completed.
September has been a rather muted month for cryptocurrencies, with the Coindesk 20 index slightly changed during the period, an increase of only 0.54%. Hanging back and is on the way to losing more than 5% in the month. Bitcoin is currently increasing by 4.5%.
October, called up to its historic effect on BTC, is just around the corner. Stay aware!
What to look at
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s Week-Head note.
- Crypto
- September 30: FTX begins $ 1.6 billion, third credit payment under its bankruptcy plan through Bitgo, Kraken and Payoneer. Creditors must fill out KYC and tax forms to qualify.
- September 30: Starknet (STRK) Starts BTC insert on Mainnet, enabling wrapped BTC -Tokens, which stabbed with 25% consensus weight; U-recording period cut to 7 days; Reward Start.
- Macro
- September 30 at. 10: US Aug. JOLT’s report. Openings est. 7.1 m, finishes (prev. 3,208m).
- September 30, 7 p.m. 10: US September CB Consumer confidence. Est. 96.
- September 30: Deadline for the US Congress to adopt the annual federal federal grants Bill is funding government operations.
- Earnings (Estimates based on Factset -Data)
Token -events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see Coindesk’s Week-Head note.
- Management votes and calls
- Gnosisdao votes on a submitted proposal to set up a pilot fund of $ 40,000. This would allow society to directly finance small ecosystem projects using a conviction of the voting pool. Voting ends October 1st.
- Unlock
- 30 September: To unlock 1.74% of its circulating supply worth $ 20.46 million.
- Token launches
- September 30: Soon (soon) Air dropout requirement period ends.
- September 30: Zkverify (VFY) to be performed on Binance. Kucoin, gate.io and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s conferences, see Coindesk’s Week-Head note.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The derivatives exchange match between Aster and Hyperliquid is heated.
- Daily trade volume at BNB chain-based aster has rocked $ 64 billion, dwarf Hyperliquids $ 7.6 billion, defillama data shows.
- According to Boltliquidity Core contributor Max Arch is due to the shift Aster’s offer of between 100x and 300x leverage. Hyperliquid markets are mainly closed to 40x.
- “Dealers follow the gearing, regardless of underlying platform quality, but we will see how the increased risk that comes with higher leverage caps affect platforms like Aster in the long term,” wrote Arch on X.
- Arch notes that about 6% of Aster’s trading volume can be attributed to washing trade far less than some skeptics had estimated.
- The exchange’s native tokens, aster and hype have worked poorly over the past week; With the previous sliding from $ 2.39 on September 25 to $ 1.80, while hype is down from 18th September height of $ 58.92 to $ 44.32.
- The bearish token performance in relation to trading activity can be attributed to a wider Altcoin sale that led to the removal of $ 200 billion from the overall market capital of the sector last week, according to CoinMarketcap data.
Derivatives Location
- The market shows signs of a potential shift back to a bullish bias, as derivatives, including open interest and basis, show a pickup.
- Overall, BTC Futures Open Rent rose to approx. $ 31 billion from a recent monthly low of $ 29 billion. This increase indicates a renewed interest from dealers where Binance still leads to $ 12.7 billion.
- The three-month annual basis is also recovering and climbing to 7% from approx. 6%, which makes the basis for acting more profitable.
- BTC Options Market still presents a complex and somewhat conflicting image.
- While the 25 Delta Skew for short-term options continues to fall, which suggests that dealers pay a prize to put and signal a desire for downside protection, 24-hour put-call binding tells another story.
- In a clear reversal of the recent trends, calls now dominate volume, which amounts to 65% of the traded contracts. This sharp increase indicates that despite the cautious mood reflected in the skew, a significant number of dealers actively place a short -term rally.
- This divergence highlights a very polarized market where a mixture of cover strategies and speculative efforts creates a state of mixed mood.
- Financing rates at larger venues such as Binance and OKX have become positive and increase to approx. 7% and 10%. This indicates a growing appetite on geared long positions where long dealers now pay shorts, a classic sign of positive market mood.
- While the funding rate of Hyperliquid remains unstable, the trend of key exchanges suggests that dealers again become safe and willing to take on bullish exposure
- Coinglass data shows $ 316 million in 24 hours of liquidation with a 44-56 split between along and shorts. ETH ($ 73 million), BTC ($ 70 million) and others ($ 29 million) were leaders in terms of nominal liquidation. Binance -Liquidation Heat Card indicates $ 115,000 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in the event of a price increase.
Market movements
- BTC has fallen 1.3% from 1 p.m. 16 A Monday of $ 112,840.60 (24 hours: +0.71%)
- ETH is down 2.13% of $ 4,138.84 (24 hours: +0.71%)
- Coindesk 20 has fallen 2.34% at 3,971.18 (24 hours: -0.16%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has risen 12 bps by 2.93%
- BTC financing rate is 0.0056% (6,1276% annual) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.82
- Gold Futures have risen 0.76% to $ 3,884.40
- Silver Futures are unchanged for $ 47.01
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.25% at 44,932.63
- Hang bed closed 0.87% at 26,8555.56
- FTSE is unchanged at 9,299.84
- Euro Stoxx 50 has increased 0.13% at 5,506.85
- DJIA closed Monday 0.15% at 46,316.07
- S&P 500 closed 0.26% at 6,661.21
- Nasdaq Composite closed 0.48% at 22,591.15
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.71% at 29,971.91
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.84% ​​at 2,945.34
- US 10-year-old Treasury has dropped 1.6 bps of 4.125%
- E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are down 0.1% at 6,706.50
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES are unchanged at 24,814.75
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index has fallen 0.13% at 46,550.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.88% (0.12%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03673 (-0.33%)
- Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 1,041 EH/S
- HashPrice (Spot): $ 50.55
- Total fees: 3.32 BTC / $ 376,516
- Cme futures open interest: 133,005 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.5 oz
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.32%
Technical analysis
- After testing the 20-day exponential sliding average (EMA) on the weekly chart, Bitcoin is rebounded to the $ 114,000 level and now holding over all major daily EMAs.
- For Bulls, the central goal will be to push through the daily order block between $ 116,000 and $ 118,000, which would confirm a market structure breach and signal a potential trend turning.
- On the downside, a close to Monday’s high of $ 114,870 would leave Bitcoin open to the possibility of repeating Monday’s low. This level is also in line with the EMA100 on the daily chart, making it an important area with the collapse to look at.
Crypto shares
- COINBASE GLOBAL (COIN): CLOSED Monday at $ 333.99 (+6.85%), -1.77% to $ 328.09 on the market before market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed to $ 133.66 (+5.25%), -1.22% to $ 132.03
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 34.29 (+10.97%), -1.90% to $ 33.64
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed to $ 62.3 (-0.46%), -1.56% to $ 61.33
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 18.66 (+15.69%), -2.63% to $ 18.17
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 19.78 (+11.81%), -2.38% to $ 19.31
- Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 17.33 (+2.85%), -0.52% to $ 17.24
- Cleanspark (CLSK): Closed to $ 14.87 (+14.74%), -2.02% to $ 14.57
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 44.21 (+8.86%), -1.02% TO $ 43.76
- Exodus Movement (2.
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): Closed to $ 326.42 (+5.62%), -2.34% to $ 318.77
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 29.24 (+3.29%), -0.14% to $ 29.20
- Sharplink Gaming (SBet): Closed to $ 17.26 (+7.88%), -2.61% to $ 16.81
- Upexi (Upxi): Closed to $ 5.62 (+7.77%), -1.25% to $ 5.55
- Lite strategy (lits): closed to $ 2.54 (-0.78%), 1.57% to $ 2.50
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 518 million
- Cumulative net streams: 57.3 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.31 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 546.9 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 13.69 billion
- Collected ETH -holdings ~ 6.46 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
While you were asleep
- SEC, who is willing to engage in issuers of tokenized asset, says SEC’s Hester Peirce (Coindesk): The SEC Commissioner said tokenization raises complex questions about how digital and traditional securities coexist, and encourages issuers to seek guidance as the market is expanded to multi-rillillion-dollar potential.
- Vance says we ‘went against a shutdown’ after meeting with Democrats (Reuters): A standoff over health financing has stopped the negotiations and raised the prospect of Furloughs, Court’s closures and delayed services if the state financing lapses tomorrow.
- Visa Tests pre -financed stablecoin for cross -border payments (Bloomberg): The pilot using Circle’s USDC and EUR aims to allow banks and transfer companies to avoid prior financed accounts, faster cross -border transfers and improve capital efficiency at Visa Direct.
- Deutsche Börse, Circle to integrate stableecoins into European Market Infrastructure (Coindesk): The initiative starts with Circle’s EURC and USDC trade with 360TS 3DX and via Crypto Finance, with custody administered by Clearstream through Crypto Finance’s German Entity as SUB-CUSTODIAN.
- Societe General’s crypto arm exposes euros and dollar stableecoins at Uniswap, Morpho (Coindesk): SG-Forge’s EURCV and USDCV went live on Uniswap and Morpho, enabling borrowing against crypto and tokenized T-bills where Flowdesk delivered spot market.
- Investors are fighting for stock market rally to be borrowed time (The Wall Street Journal): Concerns about violent speculation, record assessments, customs inflation risks and October’s Rocky History burns warnings that Wall Street’s record setting can be vulnerable to a sharp reversal.
