Bitcoin’s “realized capitalization” is at an all-time high of $1.125 trillion, suggesting that BTC remains in a bull market despite the nearly 40% plunge in prices over the past 10 weeks.
This on-chain metric, which values each bitcoin at the price it last moved, highlights actual capital inflows rather than speculative price action as aggregate market capitalization.
Glassnode data shows that the realized cap continued to rise through the 36% correction from the all-time high in October, although it has stalled of late in the $1.125 trillion range. A similar pause was seen during the April 2025 tariff space, when bitcoin bottomed near $76,000 before continuing to reach new highs.
During the bear market of 2022, the realized cap fell from around $470 billion to $385 billion as investors capitulated and coins were sold at a lower price base – this kind of reaction is not currently seen.
Four-year cycle narrative questioned
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could defy the four-year cycle narrative with upside surprises in 2026. Dragosch pointed to robust global growth combined with ongoing rate cuts to steepen the yield curve and expand liquidity — all conditions that could weaken the US dollar, which has previously been an environment for bitcoin.
“In my view, bitcoin is significantly underpricing the prevailing macro backdrop, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and FTX collapse, despite no signs of a US recession and evidence of reaccelerating growth,” Dragosch said.
