AUS vs PAK 2024/25, AUS vs PAK 3rd ODI Match Preview

Big picture: Pakistan confident, Australia shorthanded

Australian soil has mostly been the place of nightmares for Pakistan over the decades. But ignited by the fiery bowling of quick Haris Rauf, Pakistan are on the brink of a rare series win in Australia and go into Sunday’s decider at Optus Stadium high on confidence after a nine-wicket hammering of the world champions in Adelaide.

Of course, feeling any sense of security over such a volatile team can be fraught with danger, but Pakistan deserve to go into the third and final ODI in Perth as favourites. They probably should have wrapped up the series already if not for Pat Cummins’ late heroics with the bat at the MCG.

Pakistan came back superbly with a master class in the second ODI, blowing away Australia’s batters with skilful pace bowling before impressive young opener Saim Ayub treated Australia’s front-line attack with contempt.

It is hard to remember a more clinical performance from a visiting team in Australia. Pakistan, whose white-ball coach Gary Kirsten quit amid upheaval just a week before the tour, can almost sniff an unlikely series win and they will face a weakened Australia.

Cummins, Steven Smith, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Marnus Labuschagne will not play as they begin preparations for the first Test against India.

Josh Inglis will be Australia’s 30th ODI captain and has the tough task of encouraging a new-look side in conditions that will once again test their batting order preaching attack. There will be considerable pressure on misfiring openers Matt Short and Jake Fraser-McGurk, who have both drawn criticism for their shot selection across the two matches.

While the series is seen as an entrée to the blockbuster Test summer, as underlined by modest crowds in Melbourne and Adelaide, there is added significance for both teams ahead of the upcoming Champions Trophy in Pakistan.

Form guide

Australia LWWLL (Last Five ODIs, Latest First)
Pakistan WLLWW

In the spotlight: Josh Inglis and Haris Rauf

Josh Inglis, 29, will make his captaincy debut for Australia and will also lead his team in the subsequent T20I series against Pakistan. Due to his heavy workload with the gloves, Inglis has never taken the reins of Western Australia or the Perth Scorchers in the BBL, but his leadership credentials and tactical nous are widely regarded. He captained a very strong Prime Minister’s XI in a first-class match against the West Indies two years ago. The England-born Inglis started the season in sublime form and was even tossed around as a possible left-field option to solve Australia’s Test opening dilemma. Inglis continued to look good in the opening two games but failed to convert starts. On a ground he has long dominated in the BBL, Inglis is emerging as Australia’s key batter as he bids to start his captaincy on a winning note.

Haris Rauf has undoubtedly been the standout performer so far in this series with eight wickets to rattle Australia. He has been unplayable at times on helpful surfaces and has cast doubt on whether Australia’s batsmen can handle a high pace. Rauf should enjoy the extra bounce at Optus Stadium, but he shouldn’t get carried away. He should strive to replicate the discipline he showed in Adelaide, characterized by an excellent line and length delivery – reminiscent of Test cricket – to make Labuschagne slip away. If he can end the series in style, then his performances across the three matches will go down in Pakistan fast-bowling lore.

Team news: Mass changes for Australia

Quick Sean Abbott, who played in the series opener, is likely to return to Australia along with experienced all-rounder and Perth local Marcus Stoinis. Hometown heroes Lance Morris and Cooper Connolly will be considered, while speedsters Spencer Johnson and Xavier Bartlett are also in the squad.

Australia (probable): 1 Matt Short, 2 Jake Fraser-McGurk, 3 Josh Inglis (capt, wk), 4 Glenn Maxwell, 5 Marcus Stoinis, 6 Aaron Hardie, 7 Cooper Connolly, 8 Sean Abbott, 9 Spencer Johnson/Xavier Bartlett, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Lance Morris

After such a comprehensive win in Adelaide, Pakistan are set to remain unchanged.

Pakistan (probable): 1 Saim Ayub, 2 Abdullah Shafique, 3 Babar Azam, 4 Mohammad Rizwan (capt, wk), 5 Kamran Ghulam, 6 Salman Agha, 7 Irfan Khan, 8 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Haris Rauf, 11 Mohammad Hasnain

Stand and conditions

A fast and bouncy surface is expected on a ground that aims to mimic the famous conditions at the nearby WACA. But runs usually flow on the ground in white-ball cricket as batters target the relatively short straight boundaries.

“The same three principles… pace, carry and bounce, but more of a batter’s wicket. Lots of runs,” WA Cricket boss Isaac McDonald told Pakinomist.

It’s been a relatively mild spring in Perth, with comfortable mid-20s temperatures expected during the day.

Statistics and trivia

Salman Agha has the fifth highest strike rate (94.86) in Pakistan’s history by batsmen who have faced at least 500 deliveries.
Glenn Maxwell needs 50 runs to reach 4000 in ODIs.
The teams have never played an ODI at Optus Stadium. Pakistan had a 4-3 edge at the WACA.
Only two ODIs have been played at Optus Stadium. In front of more than 53,000 fans, England’s 12-run win over Australia in January 2018 was the first official sporting event at the Burswood ground, while South Africa beat Australia by six wickets later that year.

Quotes

“We’re going to Perth with a clear plan, a clear method. We’re committed to the style we want to play.”
Australia’s head coach Andrew McDonald

“The most important thing was that the team won. This performance we planned to be positive and not think about the result.”
Saim Ayub on Pakistan’s win in the second match

Tristan Lavalette is a journalist based in Perth