Barclays expects a more tepid year for crypto in 2026, with trading volumes down and investor enthusiasm waning. In a comprehensive year-end report published Friday, the bank flagged a difficult backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase ( COIN ), citing unclear catalysts for renewed activity and a slow start to token adoption efforts.
Retail-facing exchanges, which benefited from increased trading interest during the previous years’ crypto bull run, now face a more subdued environment. Barclays analysts noted that trading volume in spot markets — key revenue drivers for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood ( HOOD ) — has cooled sharply. Without a clear spark to reignite demand, volumes may remain muted.
“Find Crypto Trading Volumes […] appears to be heading for a declining year in FY26 and it is not clear to us what could reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Crypto markets tend to move on big events: political announcements, product launches or policy changes. Barclays pointed to previous bursts of activity such as spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in March 2024 or the pro-crypto presidential victory in November as key drivers of near-term gains. But in the absence of such events, the bank sees structural growth as lacking.
One area that can touch the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the pending CLARITY Act, legislation that would help define the line between digital commodities and securities and clarify which US agency – the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – regulates which assets. While not a guaranteed market move, the bill could ease operational uncertainty for crypto companies and investors alike. If adopted, it could open the door to clearer product launches, especially in tokenized assets.
Coinbase remains a focal point in Barclays’ analysis. As the company expands into derivatives and tokenized equity trading, the bank sees headwinds from declining spot volumes and rising operating costs.
“COIN has a number [of] growth initiatives as well as recent acquisitions that could start to have more impact,” the report said. Nevertheless, analysts revised their price target for the stock down to $291, citing a more conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to gain attention from both crypto-native and traditional financial firms. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD) and others have tried products in this space. But Barclays warns that the trend is at an early stage and is unlikely to significantly affect earnings in 2026.
Meanwhile, the US political environment has become more favorable to digital assets following the recent election. However, Barclays sees that much of this optimism has already been priced into the market. Any legislative move like the CLARITY Act will have to pass through the Senate and survive possible legal challenges before having any practical impact.
In summary, 2026 could be a transition year for crypto. With retail activity falling and no immediate tailwind, companies are focusing on long-term bets like tokenized financing and compliance upgrades. Whether these investments will bear fruit next year or further out is still uncertain.
