CME has lost its place as the number one exchange for bitcoin futures open interest (OI). Binance has now overtaken CME as the largest venue of OI according to CoinGlass data, with Binance holding around 125,000 BTC ($11.2 billion in nominal value) to CME’s 123,000 BTC ($11 billion).
CME OI started the year at 175,000 BTC, but that level has steadily declined as the profitability of the underlying trade — where traders buy spot bitcoin while simultaneously selling futures to capture the price premium between the two markets — has declined.
However, open interest on Binance has been stable throughout the year as it is more likely that the exchange will be favored by retail traders betting on directional price movements.
Just over a year ago, CME OI hit a record high of 200,000 BTC as prices surged toward $100,000 following President Trump’s election victory. At that time, the annual base rate rose to around 15%.
Today, the CME base rate has compressed to about 5%, according to Velo data, reflecting diminishing returns for institutional base traders.
As spot and futures prices converge and market efficiency improves, arbitrage opportunities continue to shrink. CME had been the largest exchange for bitcoin futures OI since November 2023, driven by institutional positioning ahead of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. This advantage currently appears to have faded.
