Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, down 0.5% over 24 hours but still up 6.1% on the week, as the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire that sparked Tuesday’s broad rally began to show cracks less than 48 hours after it was announced.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said three paragraphs of the ceasefire proposal had been violated, without specifying which. Israeli attacks continued in Lebanon.
And the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping route whose reopening was supposed to be central to the deal, remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic passing through despite Iran’s pledge to allow “coordinated” transit.
Brent crude rose 2% to around $97 after Wednesday’s more than 10% collapse, the worst one-day plunge in six years. The reversal reflects how quickly the market has moved from pricing in peace to pricing in uncertainty about whether the truce will last through the weekend, let alone a full two weeks.
Ether fell 2.6% to $2,180 after leading the truce rally with a weekly gain of 5.2%. Solana’s SOL fell 3.1% to $81.96, XRP lost 3% to $1.33, and dogecoin fell 3.4% to $0.091. BNB held relatively steady at $600, down 2.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%, with two stocks falling for every one that rose, after rising the most in a year on Wednesday’s ceasefire euphoria. The S&P 500 and European futures pointed to a 0.2% drop, signaling the end of a four-day winning streak for global stocks. Treasuries were steady after wiping out an earlier rally on concerns that higher oil prices would lead back to inflation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to highlight upside inflation risks alongside softer labor conditions, keeping the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative intact. Japan’s wage growth has reached multi-decade highs, bolstering expectations for further rate hikes.
This combination amounts to what one analyst described as “uncoordinated tightening” across major economies, layered on top of geopolitical uncertainty that prevents any stable anchor for interest rate expectations.
Specifically for bitcoin, the move from $67,000 to $72,700 at the truce and subsequent hold above $70,000 despite Thursday’s wobbles is the most constructive price action since the war began six weeks ago.
The $65,000 to $73,000 range that has contained all moves since late February is still intact, but bitcoin is now testing the top half instead of grinding along the bottom.
