Bad news has just been bad news over the past 24 hours. Friday’s weak US job report strengthened betting on deeper fed cuts but Bitcoin haven’t played together.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value remains heavy below $ 112,000 instead of collecting the prospect of lighter monetary policy that many had expected. Inability to find the upside suggests the potential for a deeper sale ahead.
NFP shock
Job seekers had a hard time in August, when the payrolls did not reveal -only 22,000 job additions, significantly less than Dow Jones’ projection of 75,000. The report also revised the combined job creation during June and July with 21,000. In particular, the revised June number showed a net loss of 13,000.
Nine sectors, including manufacturing, construction, wholesale and professional services, registered job losses, while healthcare and leisure and hospitality were bright spots.
Kobeissi -Letter called the Jobs report “Absolutely insane.” The newsletter service described the downward revisions in previous months as a sign of a broken system and the labor market entering the recession territory.
After the job data, the likelihood of a bold rate cut at the September 17 meeting increased to 100%and the odds of a 50-base point cut to 12%. The likelihood of further action cuts in November and December also increased and the transmission of the Treasury gives lower.
The upcoming revisions of previous job reports are expected to add fuel to speed -cut bets. “BLS announces annual benchmark revisions on Tuesday, and they are expected to point to even weaker job growth in the past. Some studies suggest between 500K and 1 MLN jobs could be revised away,” Bannockburn Global Forex’s CEO and Chief Market strategist Marc Chandler said in a market update.
BTCS double top is intact; Volatility in the Treasury yields may increase
Bitcoin stood briefly about hoping for a fat -rate cutting and softer yields and reached a high of over $ 113,300. But the jump faded quickly, with the prices sliding back below $ 111,982 – the double top neckline.
Failure to resume this level emphasized the end of the double top decrease and validates the bearish setup and keeping downward risks in focus. Prices crossing under the Ichimoku cloud also validate the Bearish Outlook, which Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, noted in a market update.
The first support line is located around $ 101,700, which is equivalent to the 200-day simple sliding average (SMA). The latest double -top collapse in Bitcoin carefully reflects it from February this year, which led to a significant sale of several weeks pushing prices down to about $ 75,000.
The double top is a bearish reversing card formation that occurs after an asset has experienced an uptrend. It forms when the price reaches a highlight (the first top)Then withdraws to a support level called the neckline. The price then rises again, but fails to surpass the first top and create another top at about the same level. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks down during the neckline, signaling that the previous Uptrend has lost momentum and that a downward can follow.
Treasury yields can become unstable
The Bearish technical prospects presented by the latest double top collapse are strengthened by the possibility of a collection of volatility in the Treasury, which often leads to financial tightening.
The volatility could gather in the coming days, as the impending Fed-Satag cuts were initially able to send the 10-year dividend lower in a positive development for BTC and risk assets. That said, the disadvantage looks limited and could quickly turn around, like what happened at the end of 2024.
Last year, from September to December, the 10-year-old yield actually rose, even when Fed started cutting down on the rates, turning earlier falling that had occurred in the construction of September. The 10-year-old dividend was 3.6% in mid-September 2024 and then rose to 4.80% in mid-January.
While the labor market today seems significantly weaker than last year, inflation is relatively higher, and fiscal consumption continues unabated, both of which mean that the yield could rise after the Sreadrent.
“Why 10-year yield increased from September to December 2024 is open to interpretation, but there was a substitute for macro resistance, sticky inflation and lots of talk about tax-larging as a medium-term risk. This time, the concerns about the economy are more intense. But equalizing this is about to get started.
August CPI data that is due next week
When Fed lowered the rates last September, the US consumer price index was well under 3%. Since then it has wet up to 3%. More importantly, it is that the CPI data in August, which will be due next week, are likely to provide additional evidence of inflation.
According to Wells Fargo, core CPI has probably increased by 0.3%, holding the year-over-year of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the heading CPI is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.
