By James Van Straten (all times one unless otherwise stated)
It’s a new day, but the same story: Fighting and Trying to keep $ 4,000 range. Crypto Bulls can take some comfort in the fact that there is only one week back in September, a historic Bearish month, and what is usually the strongest quarter is just around the corner.
Sentiment in the industry remains muted. Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 45, which is neutral but leans a little closer to fear than greed. Part of the reason is Bitcoin’s underpresty compared to traditional assets. In the past three months, Bitcoin has added 7%, while the S&P 500 rose 9%and gold 12%.
Looking ahead, $ 17 billion will expire Bitcoin options tomorrow with a maximum pain price (the level where holders of the options would experience the most economic loss) of $ 110,000. It’s a bit below the current spot price of $ 112,000 and could give short -term gravity. Currently, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate between $ 110,000 and $ 116,000 until October.
Meanwhile, the most notable action is still in artificial intelligence and high -performance computer stocks like Iren (Iren). However, Bitcoin Treasury companies remain under pressure. Kendlymd (Naka) is fighting for $ 1.17, just above its private investments in pricing of public equity (pipes), and the metaplan (3350) fell another 4% in Tokyo. The stock has fallen more than 70% from its high time, leaving the trade in a 1.24 multiple to net asset value (MNAV). This decline highlights how MNAVs are compressed over the wider market. Stay aware!
What to look at
- Crypto
- 25 September 8:00: Plasma, a LAG-1 blockchain designed for global stablecoin payments, starts its mainnet beta and native token, XPL.
- Macro
- September 25, 8:30: US August Durable Goods Orders Mother Compiled Est. -0.5%, ex transport est. 0%.
- September 25, 8:30: US Q2 GDP (Final) Growth Speed ​​Qoq est. 3.3%.
- September 25, 8:30: US Jobless claims Initial (W/E 20. September) est. 235k, continued (W/E 13 September) est. 1930k.
- September 25, 8:30: US Q2 PCE Prices (Final) QOQ heading est. 2%; core est. 2.5%.
- September 25, 7 p.m. 10: US August Existing home sale est. 3.98 m.
- September 25, 7 p.m. 10: Fed Vice President of Supervisory Michelle Bowman speech on “Monitoring and regulation.”
- 25 September at. 13: Fed Governor Michael Barr talk about “Bank Strek testing.”
- 25 September at. 15: Mexico benchmark interest est. 7.5%.
- Earnings (Estimates Based on Factset -Data)
Token -events
- Management votes and calls
- Unlock
- 25. September: To unlock 2.28% of its released supply worth $ 7.98 million.
- Token launches
- September 25: Aster (Aster) to list on BTSE.
- September 25: Plasma (XPL) to the list of 10+ exchanges including Binance, OKX and Bitget.
- 25. September: to list on gate us.
- September 25: Avantis (Avnt) to List on Btse.
Conferences
Token Talk
by Francisco Rodrigues
- The price of Hyperliquid’s hype-token is significantly underpinning the wider crypto market, mainly due to growing competition from BNB chain-based derivatives that exchange aster and upcoming token locks.
- Aster, supported by Yzi Labs, overtook Hyperliquid in daily eternal trade volume this week in a rebellion that sent shock waves through Crypto’s ecosystem on chain.
- In just one week, Aster’s open interest ballooned 33,500%and jumped from $ 3.7 million to $ 1.25 billion. Its 24-hour trading volume hit $ 35.8 billion, more than twice the Hyperliquid that logged $ 10 billion according to Defillama data. The total value locked (tvl) at Aster also jumped, almost tripled to $ 1.85 billion.
- The platform’s token, Aster, has added more than 344% in the last week to $ 2, giving it a fully diluted valuation of $ 15.9 billion. Hype slid to $ 43 from $ 58.4.
- Hype’s drop coincides with investor anxiety over upcoming token locks. At the end of November, 237 million hype will worth more than $ 10 billion at current prices, gradually becoming liquid over a two-year period.
Derivatives Location
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to many larger tokens has fallen in the last 24 hours, with Avax witnessing the sharpest fall, almost 12%.
- Nevertheless, the overall positioning in BTC -Futures remains elevated, where OI hovers close to the registration of heights. ETHS Futures Oi has risen to 14.45 million ETH, despite large liquidations on the decentralized exchange hyperliquid.
- Oi in USDT and Dollar-Denominated Sol-Vigner on larger exchanges has risen slightly from 29 million sun to 30.28 million sun as Asian hours when the spot price falls against $ 200. Some dealers appear to map the decline.
- XRP, Sun, Har, TRX, SUI and XLM stand out as coins with negative financing speeds and point to a bias for bearish short positions.
- At CME, down in BTC -Futures Oi resumed, while Oi in ether futures has risen back to detecting heights over 2.2 million ETH. The annual three-month basis in ETH has dropped to 7% from 9.8% in a sign of Bullish pressure weakening.
- On boundary, BTC and ETH Put options continue to draw premium relative to calls, paint a bearish image. Some dealers picked up outside the money Lower Strike Ether Puts via OTC Desk Paradigm.
Market movements
- BTC has fallen 1.71% from 1 p.m. 16 A Wednesday to $ 111,622.87 (24 hours: -1.06%)
- ETH has fallen 3.38% of $ 4,026.82 (24 hours: -3.47%)
- Coindesk 20 has dropped 3.52% at 3,923.42 (24 hours: -2.57%)
- Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate has increased by 5 BPS of 2.9%
- BTC financing rate is at 0.0022% (2,3586% annual) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.84
- Gold Futures have risen 0.39% of $ 3,782.80
- Silver Futures have risen 1.95% of $ 45.06
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.27% at 45,754.93
- Hang bed closed 0.13% at 26,484.68
- FTSE has dropped 0.14% at 9,237.23
- Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 0.25% at 5,450.72
- DJIA shut down on Wednesday down 0.37% at 46,121.28
- S&P 500 closed 0.28% at 6,637.97
- Nasdaq Composite closed 0.33% at 22,497.86
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.20% at 29,756.95
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.55% at 2,941.02
- US 10-year-old Treasury has dropped 0.8 bps on 4.139%
- E-MINI S&P 500 Futures are unchanged to 6,691.25
- E-MINI NASDAQ-100 FUTURES ARE DOWN 0.16% at 24,699.00
- E-MINI DOW JONES Industrial Average Index is unchanged at 46,471.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.92% (+0.45%)
- Ether-Bitcoin ratio: 0.03612 (-1.47%)
- Hashrate (Seven-Day Sliding Average): 1,095 EH/S
- HashPrice (Spot): $ 49.79
- Total fees: 2.88 BTC / $ 325,474
- CME Futures Open Interest: 136,940 BTC
- BTC Priced in gold: 29.8 oz.
- BTC VS GOLD MARKET CAP: 8.44%
Technical analysis
- Looking south, after fooling the fall of a narrowing press range early this week.
- The price has entered 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement support, with downward sloping 5- and 10-day simple movement average indicating a bearish bias.
- The focus is now shifting to $ 3,591, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Crypto shares
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Wednesday of $ 321.77 (+0.53%), -1.37% to $ 317.37
- Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed to $ 131.58 (+0.47%), -0.3% to $ 131.18
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $ 34.29 (+3.47%), -0.85% to $ 34
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed to $ 67.59 (-2.73%), -1.97% to $ 66.26
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed to $ 17.64 (-0.4%), -0.68% to $ 17.52
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed to $ 17.99 (+5.39%), -0.89% to $ 17.83
- Core Scientific (Corz): Closed to $ 17.01 (+0.06%), -0.82% to $ 16.87
- CLEANSPARK (CLSK): CLOSED TO $ 14.45 (+3.88%), -1.59% TO $ 14.22
- COINSHARES VALKYRIE BITCOIN MINERS ETF (WGMI): CLOSED TO $ 45 ( +4.9%), +1.71% TO $ 45.77
- Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed to $ 32 ( +12.08%), +2.84% to $ 32.91
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (Mstr): Closed to $ 323.31 (-1.36%), -0.87% to $ 320.50
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed to $ 31.62 (-3.18%), +0.57% to $ 31.80
- Sharplink Gaming (SBet): Closed to $ 17.58 (+3.35%), -3.24% to $ 17.01
- Upexi (Upxi): Closed to $ 6.16 (-0.16%), -3.57% to $ 5.94
- Lite strategy (LITS): CLOSED TO $ 2.7 (+2.66%)
Etf is flowing
SPOT BTC ETFS
- Daily net streams: $ 241 million
- Cumulative net streams: 57.45 billion dollars
- Collected BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million
SPOT ETH ETFS
- Daily Net Streams: -$ 79.4 million
- Cumulative net streams: $ 13.64 billion
- Collected ETH -holdings ~ 6.6 million
Source: Father’s page -Investors
While you were asleep
- Ether falls to $ 4K, BTC, XRP Slide, as the US government’s shutdown risks Mount (Coindesk): The polyming traffickers set odds of a federal government’s shutdown to 77%. Federal agencies prepare unpaid leave plans as Congress is facing a period of 30 September to pass Stop Gap financing.
- StableCOin Issuer Circle examines ‘reversible’ transactions in departure to Crypto (Financial Times): Circle explores a counterpayment layer for its bow blockchain to allow refund and has developed a confidentiality function to hide transaction amount, although it has not yet been released.
- Nine European banks join forces to issue Mica-compatible Euro StableCoin (Coindesk): ing, Unicredit, Dansk Bank, Caixabank, SEB, KBC, Banca Sella, Dekabank and Raiffeisen are planning to launch a mica-regulated euro stablecoin in the second half of 2026 to challenge us dominance.
- Australia seems to bring Crypto under Financial Services Framework with a new draft legislation (Coindesk): The draft law requires crypto platforms to have financial service licenses in accordance with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s supervision of consultation open until October 24.
- White House Eyes New Round of Mass Descends If the Government shuts down (The New York Times): A memo in the White House ordered federal agencies to plan for furloughs and layoffs targeting jobs seen as politically uneven, escalating tensions before September 30th financing.
