By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market remains under pressure and falling in October. Bitcoin has fallen 3% to $107,500 in the past 24 hours, while ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL have seen even greater losses. The CoinDesk 20 index fell more than 4%.
Among the top 100 coins, only ICP, ASTER and HASH remain in the green, with ASTER boosted by Binance co-founder ChangPeng “CZ” Zhao’s disclosure of his exposure to the token.
It’s worth noting that BTC has recently decoupled from the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, with upside likely limited by consistent profit-taking from long-term holders’ wallets.
Here’s some food for thought for traditional financial traders: The decoupling could be an early warning signal for stocks. In 2021, BTC peaked in November and stocks followed suit about a month later. Coincidentally, options tied to the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are already showing signs of bullishness, a typical hallmark of market tops.
For now, bulls remain confident as BTC prices remain above the $100,000 mark.
“Historical data shows November as the strongest month for BTC performance, with an average return of over 40% over the past decade,” said Emir Ebrahim of ZeroCap. “With easing macro uncertainty and gradually improving risk sentiment, the positioning remains favorable for a continuation of the long-term uptrend through the end of the year.”
Chart analysts see things differently. Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt opened a short trade in BTC futures, noting that a “megaphone” pattern on the bitcoin chart usually signals a price decline.
Trends come and go, but some things remain constant, like the steady pace of hacks, which continue to raise questions about blockchain infrastructure security and highlight that institutional influence has yet to move beyond prices. Just today Balancer was hacked for millions.
In regulatory news, the Financial Times reported that the European Commission is preparing to expand central oversight of key financial infrastructures – including exchanges, crypto exchanges and clearing houses to reduce market fragmentation and boost the bloc’s competitiveness.
On the traditional market side, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond traded near three-week highs as traders await economic data releases this week, including ADP employment, ISM PMIs and the Michigan sentiment index. Pay attention!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Nov. 3 at 13:30 UTC: Horizen (ZEN) hosts an AMA on X to discuss important product updates and roadmap progress as Darkswap prepares for its mainnet launch.
- Macro
- Nov. 3 at 9: S&P Global Brazil, Oct. Manufacturing PMI (previously 46.5).
- Nov. 3 at 10:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada, Oct. Manufacturing PMI Est. 48.2.
- Nov. 3 at 10:45 AM: S&P Global US October (Final) Manufacturing PMI Est. 52.2.
- Nov. 3 at 11: S&P Global Mexico, Oct. Manufacturing PMI (previously 49.6).
- Nov. 3, at 11am: US ISM October. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.2.
- 3 November at 14: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook delivers a speech on “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- November 3: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.04.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- ZKsync DAO votes to launch a six-month, 37.5 million ZK pilot stake program offering up to 10% APY for delegation to active voters. Voting ends November 3.
- The Ether.Fi DAO votes to authorize its foundation to use up to $50M from the Treasury for ETHFI token buybacks, which can only be exercised while the token price is below $3.00. Voting ends November 3.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- November 3rd: Monade MON) Airdrop claim period ends.
- November 3: Kite (KITE) to list on Binance, Bitrue, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- A dismal week of price action extended Monday with altcoins included double zero (2Z) and plasma everyone faces a lot of sales pressure.
- ENA and 2Z both fell 7% over the past 24 hours to compound a 30% decline over the past seven days. Plasma is trading at $0.27, a sharp contrast from this time last month when it was hovering around $0.90 the week after it went live.
- There is one reason for restrained optimism in the altcoin market: the average relative strength index is at 37.51/100, indicating oversold conditions that could lead to a relief rally.
- Much of it will depend on the direction of bitcoin and ether both of which are down to a lesser extent on Monday as they challenge the $107,500 and $3,700 support levels respectively.
- A break below these levels would cause a ripple effect across the altcoin market due to varying levels of liquidity, which combined with potential derivative settlements could spur a cascading effect.
- If bitcoin can move back above the $112,000 mark, it will ease bearish sentiment and give altcoins an opportunity to challenge previously resilient levels of resistance.
- The entire crypto market cap is $3.59 trillion after losing $600 billion in value since October 6.
Derivative positioning
- BTC and ETH futures open interest (OI) remained largely unchanged over the past 24 hours, while OI in altcoins including XRP, HYPE and DOGE fell, indicating capital outflows from the broader market.
- However, the OI normalized cumulative volume delta for BTC and ETH has fallen in line with the broader market, suggesting that a bias towards short positions has driven OI higher.
- Volmex’s bitcoin and ether 30-day volatility index is on the rise again, pointing to renewed expectations of price turbulence.
- On the CME, BTC and ETH’s annualized three-month basis remains locked below 10%. Positioning in ether futures and options remains elevated relative to bitcoin.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options show a bias for put options in the short and near-dated expirations.
Market movements
- BTC is down 2.15% as of 16 ET Friday at $107,244.97 (24 hours: -3.27%)
- ETH is down 4% to $3,706.20 (24 hours: -4.78%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.99% to 3,466.32 (24h: -4.84%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps to 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0095% (10.4211% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.89
- Gold futures are up 0.27% at $4,007.30
- Silver futures are up 0.38% at $48.35
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.12% at 52,411.34
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.97% at 26,158.36
- The FTSE is up 0.13% to 9,729.98
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.68% to 5,700.41
- The DJIA closed little changed on Friday at 47,562.87
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.26% at 6,840.20
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.61% at 23,724.96
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.27% at 30,260.74
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.13% at 3,003.67
- US 10-year Treasury is down 1.2 bps at 4.089%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.36% to 6,898.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.57% to 26,151.00
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.1% at 47,770.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 60.30% (0.66%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03452 (-2.32%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,110 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $43.50
- Total Fees: 2.08 BTC / $230,523
- CME Futures open interest: 140,040 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 25.6 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 7.21%
Technical Analysis
- Solana’s price has fallen below the trend line connecting the April and June lows.
- In other words, the bullish trend line has been broken as a sign of seller dominance.
- Focus now shifts to the August low of $155.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $343.78 (+4.65%), -1.49% at $338.67 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.98 (+3.48%), -0.98% at $125.73
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $35.01 (+2.58%), -1.29% at $34.56
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $50.57 (+1.24%), -0.53% at $50.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.27 (+2.87%), -1.64% at $17.97
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.78 (-6.21%), -1.82% at $19.42
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.54 (+3.86%), +0.74% at $21.70
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.8 (+0.62%), -2.92% at $17.28
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $57.39 (+1.2%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.49 (+3.2%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $269.51 (+5.87%), -1.86% at $264.50
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $26.46 (+7.5%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.84 (+8.38%), -4.05% at $13.28
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.47 (+4.93%), -4.47% at $4.27
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.09 (+7.18%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$191.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.15 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.34M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$98.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.38 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.72 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
- Why did the Fed inject $29.4 billion in liquidity and what does it mean for Bitcoin? (CoinDesk): Overnight repos eased the reserve burden, a positive for the leading crypto asset, by lowering funding stress and volatility, but the move is temporary and lacks quantitative easing.
- Dogecoin, Cardano Lead Profit Selling, Gold Pulls Back as China Ends Tax Rebate (CoinDesk): Crypto recorded its worst October since 2015 as bitcoin fell to near $106,000 and selling by long-term holders accelerated. China’s policy shift cooled gold after a retail surge.
- Balances Hit by Apparent Exploitation as $110M in Crypto Moves to New Wallets (CoinDesk): A flawed access control in the “manageUserBalance” function of the platform’s master smart contract enabled unauthorized internal withdrawals across Sonic, Polygon and Base.
- How the U.S. economy has defied doomsday predictions about tariffs (The Wall Street Journal): Lower impact from import duties, corporate margin cushions and production shifts to Vietnam and Mexico kept prices lower than expected as tariff revenues fell short of forecasts, dampening inflationary pressures.
- Swiss Crypto Bank AMINA Secures MiCA License in Austria (CoinDesk): New authorization clears an EU platform serving professional investors with crypto trading, custody, portfolio management and staking, expanding institutional access under the bloc’s harmonized rulebook.
- Hong Kong allows crypto exchanges to tap global capital pools (Bloomberg): Today’s SFC circular will let licensed exchanges connect Hong Kong clients with global order books, bringing crypto in line with equity trading rules.
