By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
It is at risk again for markets after a Reuters report suggested a cease-fire plan between the US and Iran could take effect on Monday, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin is up over 4% in 24 hours to nearly $70,000, lifting sentiment across the broader market. The CoinDesk 20 index and XRP (XRP) also added 4%, while ether (ETH) jumped over 5%, along with a 3% increase in solana (SOL).
The tone is reinforced by bullish signals in the futures market, a continued decline in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index and a 0.8% rise in Nasdaq 100 futures.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy – the world’s largest publicly traded bitcoin holder – hinted at another BTC purchase. The company already has 762,099 BTC, underscoring its dominant reserve position and long-term accumulation strategy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a symbolic effort to ease stress on the energy market.
Taken together, these point to potential for further upside in crypto.
But there is a caveat. Recent ceasefire headlines citing unidentified sources have proven unreliable, often being denied or outright denied by Iran. If this pattern repeats itself, the markets could quickly reverse course.
Another key question is whether a cease-fire between the US and Iran will be binding on Israel. If not, the current risk-on sentiment may prove short-lived.
The latest push for a cease-fire is notably being described as a last-ditch effort to prevent the “massive attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure,” President Donald Trump threatened over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the oil market continues to inject inflationary pressure into the global economy. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia raised the price of its Arab Light crude for Asia-bound shipments in May to a record premium to Middle Eastern benchmarks.
Some observers warned that oil prices are approaching a danger zone. The 12-month rate of change in oil stands at 92%. Historically, a transition to 100% has coincided with stock market collapse. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- 6 April at 12:00 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) is hosting a recap and Ask Me Anything session (AMA) in March 2026 at X Spaces.
- Macro
- 6 April at 09:00: US ISM Services PMI for March estimated 55 (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Aave DAO votes to adjust oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds and change interest models across its V2 markets to support their continued depreciation. Voting ends on April 6.
- The Decentraland DAO votes to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has the support of voters. Voting ends on April 6.
- Unlocks
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply, worth $11.94 million.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 3.56% as of 16 ET Friday at $69,805.19 (24 hours: +4.23%)
- ETH is up 4.34% to $2,154.80 (24h: +5.42%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.78% to 1,977.26 (24 hours: +4.06%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.69%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0058% (6.3400% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.11% to 99.91
- Gold futures are up 1.60% at $4,726.10
- Silver futures are up 1.00% at $73.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.55% at 53,413.68
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.70% at 25,116.53
- The FTSE 100 closed up 0.69% at 10,436.30 on Thursday
- The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.70% at 5,692.86
- The DJIA closed up 0.13% at 46,504.67
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% to 33,108.20
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 bps to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,644.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,370.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 46,779.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.02% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030877 (1.02%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 954 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.75
- Total fees: 1.61 BTC / $108,359
- CME Futures open interest: 106,600 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.66%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows fluctuations in the WTI oil price since 1986 in the upper pane. The lower pane shows the 12-month rate of change (ROC).
- Historically, when ROC rises to 100%, stock markets have collapsed. And now the ROC is approaching that marker again.
- “Every major market crash since 1987 was preceded by one signal,” said Jack Prandelli, a commodity market analyst and author of the Substack-based Merchant’s News on X.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $171.46 (–0.88%), +3.80% at $177.97 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +2.44% at $18.07
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), +3.10% at $8.98
- Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), +2.49% at $13.18
- Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), +1.79% at $16.52
- CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), +3.30% at $9.08
- Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), +2.06% at $37.12
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +4.20% at $94.05
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +4.04% at $124.67
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +4.52% at $6.47
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +3.59% at $10.10
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), +3.59% at $1.01
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$71.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
