By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000. Its relative strength is notable given the week’s sales, which saw it drop from over $75,000.
Most assets saw sharp declines during the period as the conflict in Iran escalated and damaged vital energy infrastructure. A warmer-than-expected US PPI pressure in February reinforced the effect.
Traditional safe-havens including gold and silver also tumbled, while Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel. barrel due to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Fat didn’t help. While the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, its tone turned hawkish. The effects of the conflict have dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, and in fact the perceived odds of rate hikes are rising from 8% to top 24% in the prediction markets.
André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and that the balance may already be tipping in the token’s favor.
On the one hand, rising inflation expectations are supportive, Dragosch said. Bitcoin bull runs have historically aligned with expansions in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which rose sharply this year, and rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of increasing economic activity and inflation expectations is probably one of the main reasons why bitcoin recently managed to outperform other traditional assets such as gold and US stocks,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less sensitive to interest rates than gold, which is why it was not as affected by the rise in bond yields.”
On the other hand, tighter economic conditions are a headwind. However, Bitcoin may have acted as the canary in what Dragosch called the “macro mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this tightening, showing a record ‘macro discount’ and front-running the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, an important catalyst will continue to improve financial conditions. This means the end of the conflict in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as developments in the crypto space show growing adoption. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 20 March at 8:30am: Canada PPI YoY (Prev 5.4%); MoM (Previous 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), premarket, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Lightchain AI DAO votes on a temporary 90-day team authority proposal, which gives the core team short-term operational authority to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends March 22.
- Unlocks
- March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply, worth $52.45 million.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.29% as of 16 ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24 hours: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% to $2,148.07 (24h: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% to 2,044.85 (24 hours: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps to 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.38% to 99.70
- Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60
- Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% to 53,372.53
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.88% at 25,277.32
- The FTSE 100 is down 2.16% to 10,082.61
- The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 1.71% to 5,638.54
- The DJIA closed down 0.44% at 46,021.43 on Thursday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 6,606.49
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.28% at 22,090.69
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.42% at 31,854.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- The US 10-year Treasury note rose 2 bps to 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.43% at 46,140.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total Fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- CME Futures open interest: 117,190 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.72%
Technical Analysis
- BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming out – with the RSI bouncing off oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, implying more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in premarket
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% at $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
