By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Cryptocurrency prices are falling as some holders look to cash in on the mid-week rise to $74,000 and others prefer less risky assets as the war in the Middle East escalates.
Bitcoin has lost 3.7% in the past 24 hours and held just above $70,000, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 3.5% as momentum from the rally earlier in the week cools. Bitcoin cleared $74,000 on Wednesday and is still up more than 6% over five days.
Illia Otychenko, senior analyst at CEX.IO, said the decline reflects selling pressure from short-term traders who bought the rally. “Despite the recent recovery, there is still limited conviction that the rally will continue,” Otychenko told CoinDesk.
Meanwhile, derivatives markets are showing increasing pessimism. Funding rates remain deeply negative, meaning traders are paying to hold short positions.
But the underlying demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Otychenko noted that stablecoin movements into exchanges recently reached their 2026 highs, while spot bitcoin ETF flows turned positive.
“This creates a clear conflict in the market. Institutional spot buyers are accumulating Bitcoin, while derivatives traders are increasing short positions,” he added. “Historically, when spot accumulation coincides with negative financing, it often results in a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to close positions and price moves higher. However, that outcome is not guaranteed.”
Geopolitics remains a factor. Brent crude has risen more than 22% in the past week after US and Israeli attacks on Iran and retaliatory strikes disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point that carries about 20% of global supply.
“Hormuz tanker traffic is still down 92%, Goldman warns oil could hit $100 and the curve is flattening again as the short end reiterates inflation risk with the 2-year backing at 3.51%,” Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute, said in a note.
The rise in energy prices is fueling inflation concerns, prompting traders to reconsider expectations of interest rate cuts. Bond markets are already reflecting this shift, with yields on US Treasuries rising as investors price in the risk of inflation remaining high.
And don’t forget, there’s also the US jobs report later today, which will also factor into the Fed’s interest rate decisions. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 6 March at 8:30 am: US non-farm payrolls for February estimated. 59K (Previously 130K)
- 6 March at 8:30am: February US unemployment rate estimated at 4.3% (previously 4.3%)
- 6 March at 8:30 AM: US Average Hourly Earnings MoM for February Estimated. 0.3% (Previous 0.4%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- No major government voices and calls.
- Unlocks
- March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply, worth about $288.77 million.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.15% as of 16 ET Thursday at $70,398.30 (24 hours: -2.89%)
- ETH is down 1.58% to $2,055.24 (24h: -3.01%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.22% to 2,008.56 (24h: -3.52%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps to 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.011% (-1.2209% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.23
- Gold futures are up 0.69% at $5,100.10
- Silver futures are up 1.64% at $83.03
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.62% at 55,620.84
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.72% to 25,757.29
- The FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,415.70
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,760.30
- The DJIA closed down 1.61% to 47,954.74 on Thursday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.56% at 6,830.71
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.26% at 22,748.99
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.98% at 33,610.00
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 3.12% at 7,318.90
- US 10-year Treasuries are up 7 bps at 4.15%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,804.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,905.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,804.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.47% (-0.02%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (-0.24%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,026 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.66
- Total fees: 2.75 BTC / $198,402
- CME Futures open interest: 104,755 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.8 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.71%
Technical Analysis
- The relationship between altcoins (excluding top 10) and bitcoin appears to be closing above the 50-week exponential moving average, meaning there is no clear breakout for altcoins versus BTC.
- Without clear RSI divergences, we are unlikely to see a sustained rally from the broader altcoin universe.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $205.71 (–1.54%), -0.40% at $204.89 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.73 (–6.61%), -0.70% at $22.57
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.77 (–5.60%), -0.91% at $8.69
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.60 (–5.63%), -0.71% at $15.49
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.00 (+1.01%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (–6.66%), -0.50% at $9.90
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (–8.06%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.25 (–4.73%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.74 (+0.45%), -0.43% at $105.29
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.02 (–4.99%), unchanged at $35.00
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.81 (–4.53%), -0.30% at $139.39
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.25 (–3.85%)
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.93 (–2.46%), -1.01% at $7.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.96 (–10.93%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (–7.38%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$227.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.7 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -90.9 million USD
- Cumulative net flows: $11.74 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.68 million
Source: Farside Investors
