Bitcoin should trade higher than today.
That’s according to Kevin de Patoul, CEO and co-founder of crypto investment firm Keyrock, who argues that the market is misunderstanding both macro conditions and structural progress in digital assets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $73,000 at the time of publication. Bitcoin is down about 18% year-to-date, after reaching an all-time high of around $125,000 in early October last year.
“If you go back to early 2025 through 2026 and look at all the positive developments such as legislative progress and institutional adoption, most would have said that should cause the price to explode,” de Patoul said. “Increased macro uncertainty should boost bitcoin demand, and yet it hasn’t.”
Instead, BTC has spent much of the last nine months under pressure, still behaving like a risk asset rather than the risk hedge that many proponents claim it to be. Capital that has flowed aggressively into bitcoin over the past 18 months, largely institutional, now appears more tactical than ideological.
“It’s still priced as a risk asset. Last in, first out in terms of capital allocation,” he said. “If investors see it that way, then they reduce exposure during periods of stress.”
Crypto assets have delivered a muted performance over the past six months, with bitcoin drifting well below previous highs and much of the altcoin market struggling to maintain momentum. Trading volume has thinned, volatility has compressed and broad-based rallies have been absent, marking a stark contrast to the speculative surges of previous cycles. Even as institutional adoption and tokenization efforts progress in the background, price action has remained muted, reflecting cautious capital flows and a market looking for its next catalyst.
De Patoul stops short of saying that the market is wrong. But he struggles to reconcile the retreat with the wider backdrop. “Nothing really explains the recent decline unless there is a misunderstanding of what type of asset it is supposed to be.”
This disruption is emblematic of what he sees as crypto’s current moment: not a breakout cycle, but a structural transition.
“We don’t issue stablecoins or take retail deposits, but we are connected to everything and provide liquidity across all venues,” de Patoul said. “It gives us a front-row seat to the evolution and lets us participate in the market as it shifts towards digital assets and tokenized infrastructure.”
A tale of two markets
From Keyrock’s vantage point, working with banks, asset managers, issuers and exchanges, 2026 feels less like stagnation and more like redirection.
“2026 feels like a transition year rather than a breakout,” de Patoul said. “Much of what defined crypto in previous cycles is dying out faster than expected, while the parts that actually make sense are still being built, like real economics moving on-chain.”
In his view, two largely uncorrelated markets develop in parallel.
The first is the crypto-native ecosystem: decentralized finance (DeFi), altcoins and the familiar cycle of liquidity and hype. Here the atmosphere is subdued. The rising tide that once lifted all tokens has receded. Broad-based speculative rallies are harder to sustain, replaced by “very precise options that make sense,” he said.
The second is the digitization of traditional finance. Tokenized money market funds, stablecoins, onchain funds and new market infrastructure. On that side, he says, he remains as enthusiastic as ever.
“When I talk to institutions, nothing has changed. The level of enthusiasm, the level of building, none of that drive has slowed down,” de Patoul said. “The goal is to make crypto assets more accessible to customers and to rewire parts of the financial markets.”
These institutional efforts are less sensitive to bitcoin’s price fluctuations. Stablecoins, tokenized funds and settlement rails are about upgrading financial plumbing, not speculating on crypto’s next rally. Circle’s ( CRCL ) IPO and partnerships like Apollo’s tie-up with DeFi protocol Morpho reflect multi-year commitments, he noted.
But while the assets have been tokenized, the usage layer is still being built.
Built, but not yet usable
The past 18 months marked a leap from concept to product. Funds were tokenized. Stablecoins proliferated. Infrastructure was deployed.
Yet liquidity remains thin in many tokenized MMFs and real assets (RWAs). Tokens exist, but often function as wrappers rather than transformative instruments.
“They’ve built the token. Now the question is: where can it be used? Who accepts it? Can it be used as collateral? Can it bring liquidity to scale?” said de Patoul.
Tokenization of a fund can paradoxically cut it off from traditional capital pools without immediately unlocking digital-native benefits. The bridge between traditional institutions and onchain markets, the ability to use tokenized assets seamlessly across both worlds, takes time.
“We’re stuck in an in-between phase,” he said. “The pieces are there. The next step is putting them together to bring liquidity to scale.”
Therefore, he sees 2027 and 2028 as the actual turning point.
Traditional capital markets are orders of magnitude larger than crypto. Even a small percentage migrating on-chain could eclipse the crypto’s previous high.
“During 2027, we could get to a situation where RWAs grow to be as big as the whole crypto was in the past,” de Patoul said. “It’s going to play out over the next two to three years.”
In other words, digital finance can grow out of crypto, though not necessarily in the form of a price-driven boom.
“If the supply was fully there today, we would probably have a booming market,” he said. “But it’s not. This is a transitional phase.”
Keyrock’s Bet
Founded eight years ago on the thesis that all assets would eventually be digital and onchain, Keyrock positions itself as a bridge between traditional and digital finance.
Historically rooted in capital markets and market making, the firm continues to expand its crypto-native offerings, derivatives trading, liquidity provision and tailored strategies for investors. In September, it launched Keyrock Asset Management, adding another pillar to the business. Assets under management remain modest given the recent launch, de Patoul said.
The broader ambition is to evolve from tokenization to functionality: to make digital assets truly useful at scale.
“A very big focus for us is how you move from tokenizing products to making these assets useful and tokenizing at scale,” he said.
Legislative clarity remains a gateway factor. De Patoul points to the proposed Clarity Act as a “yellow flag”, not because he doubts its eventual passage, but because the timing matters. “If it’s derailed for two years, it will have a meaningful impact,” he said. “Regulations being passed are a huge deal for institutions. That’s when they can invest at scale.”
So far, crypto’s price action can feel uninspiring. But from de Patoul’s vantage point, the quiet building of the digital market infrastructure is far more consequential than a short-term rally.
“The foundations are going in,” he said, “but the scale is yet to come.” That’s why he sees “2027 and 2028 as the real turning point for digital markets.”
Read more: JPMorgan is bullish on crypto for the rest of the year as institutional flows should drive recovery
