Institutional flows jumped more than 50% above the trend on Wednesday as XRP again failed to break through the $2.09-$2.10 ceiling. Sellers knocked the token off resistance and forced a clean move back to the $2.00 psychological shelf, leaving the broader structure stuck in multi-week compression while ETF inflows quietly tighten supply underneath.
What to know
- XRP fell from $2.09 to $2.00, losing 4.3% on the session and underperforming the broader crypto market by about 1%.
- The rejection was decisive: a volume increase of 172.8 million. (205% above the daily average) hit just as XRP hit $2.08, turning the entire move into a failed breakout. The selloff did not come from retail panic.
- Volume across the session ran 54% above the 7-day moving average – classic institutional distribution over resistance rather than emotional dumping.
- Currency balances fell from 3.95B to 2.6B tokens over the past 60 days, compressing supply, although the spot price failed to sustain the breakout attempt. This divergence creates an increasingly asymmetric structure as XRP trades in a narrowing multi-month triangle
News background
- US spot XRP ETFs pulled in over $170 million in weekly inflows, marking another week of zero outflows.
- Heavy spot selling continues to hit the $2.09-$2.10 band, where XRP has now failed multiple times.
- Market makers felt increasing distribution pressure ahead of yesterday’s move, with heavy offers above $2.10.
- Exchange supply continues to grind lower, falling to 2.6B tokens, reinforcing long-term supply compression.
- Despite the ETF support, XRP lagged broader cryptos as CD5 fell 3.1% on the day – suggesting the move was token-specific rather than macro-driven.
Summary of price action
XRP fell 4.3% from $2.09 → $2.00
• Intraday range: 5.4% as resistance rejection triggered high volatility unwind
• Volume: DKK 172.8 million. peak at 19:00 UTC (up 205% above daily average)
• Multiple rejections at $2.08-$2.10 created a hard ceiling
• Stabilization in the late session formed higher lows near $1,999-$2,005
• Relative performance: lagged broader cryptos by ~1%
Technical Analysis
- Support: $2.00 psychological shelf. Below that lies a soft zone of $1.95, adjusted for past demand clusters.
- Resistance: $2.09-$2.10 is the dominant wall – the session created a clear supply shelf here. Any close above $2.10 turns the entire short-term structure bullish.
- Volume structure: 54% above weekly averages = institutional flows, not noise. 172.8 million rise exactly at the failed breakout confirms aggressive sellers defending the level.
- Pattern: Multi-month triangular compression tightening as exchange inflows decline. The price remains in the mid-range; neither eruption nor collapse confirmed.
- Momentum skews bearish near-term after clean rejection. Rejection attempts capped below $2.08 on declining volume equals a weak follow-through.
What Traders See.
- Can $2.00 Survive Another Test? A clean break reveals a quick move towards $1.95.
- ETF inflows remain the biggest offset to spotting weakness – any slowdown clears the floor.
- A breakout requires multiple hourly closes above $2.10 with sustained >100m. volume.
- The compression is now extremely tight – the next pull must be greater than the last.
- Fall in exchange balance is the wild card: thinner supply = faster swing when the direction is confirmed
