Crypto markets were little changed on Friday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) largely unchanged. Bitcoin is up just 0.8% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) added less than 0.1%.
Crude oil prices fell below $100 on Thursday and recently traded at $96 a barrel. barrel, as the United States is said to be evaluating whether to release sanctioned Iranian oil to boost supply and reduce pressure on prices.
This gave a short-lived boost to risk assets with US stocks showing signs of recovery, but that move has now reversed. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are down 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, indicating continued fragility in the market.
Precious metals are now trading back in line with crypto after a fierce rally to record highs at the start of the year. Gold is at $4,660 after setting a high of $5,600 on January 29.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilized at $16.9 billion, roughly mirroring last week’s $17 billion and suggesting that speculative activity has leveled off.
- Funding rates across most platforms have returned to a neutral range of 0%-10%, with the negative rates observed over the previous two days likely fueling an initial relief surge through short covering before contributing to the recent crash.
- The three-month annual basis is holding steady at 2.8%, a sign that institutional sentiment remains cautious.
- The options market reflects defensive positioning: the 24-hour call-to-put volume spread has moved to 43/56.
- Risk aversion tightens, with the one-week 25-delta skew rising to 14% from 9%, notably increasing the cost of downside protection.
- The implied volatility structure confirms a sharp front-end spike in reverse, a signal that traders are preparing for an immediate high-impact volatility event, prioritizing short-term hedging over stable medium-term growth expectations.
- Long-term implied volatility (IV) remains anchored near 50%,
- Coinglass data shows $308 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 63-37 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($93 million), ETH ($81 million) and others ($19 million) led the way in fictitious liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,500 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continues to show signs of optimism despite many of the crypto majors remaining trapped in a tight trading range since early February.
- Quant (QNT) is up 7.5% since midnight following a spot listing on popular trading app Robinhood, while AI token FET has extended its rich run and is up 6.5%.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index is currently at 46/100, falling back slightly but still well above February’s lows, when it languished in the low 20s.
- While the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is flat since midnight, the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up 0.3%, indicating a slight outperformance.
