Bitcoin is holding up better than it probably should.
The biggest cryptocurrency traded at $67,378 on Monday morning, up 1.1% over the past 24 hours and largely flat on the week, while the world around it worsened sharply.
Among the majors, ether rose 2.3% to $1,981, hovering just below $2,000. BNB rose 1.4% to $624. Dogecoin added 1.8% to $0.09. Solana rose 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down 1.5% for the week, still the weakest major over a seven-day basis. XRP was flat at $1.35, down 1% on the week.
S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% in Asian trade. The VIX rose to its highest level since April’s tariff turmoil. Oil is over $100. The dollar just had its steepest weekly gain in a year.
Meanwhile, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a US market meltdown to 35%, up from 20%, while reducing the odds of a meltdown to just 5%.
“The US economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place,” Yardeni wrote. “If the oil shock continues, the Fed’s dual mandate will be stuck between the rising risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment.”
In meltdown conditions, risk assets across the board tend to suffer as investors pull capital from anything with volatility and move into cash, Treasuries or the dollar. Bitcoin has historically not been immune to these dynamics, falling alongside stocks during every major risk breakout episode since 2020 despite its reputation as a hedge.
Elsewhere, NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro offered a framework for understanding bitcoin’s price action compared to U.S. stocks in a Friday note.
Cipolaro argued that bitcoin’s recent parallel movement with US software stocks reflects “shared exposure to the current macro regime” rather than structural convergence.
Statistically, only about 25% of bitcoin’s price movements are explained by correlation to stocks. The other 75% is driven by factors outside of traditional stock indexes, he said.
The broader equity picture remains gloomy. MSCI’s global equity benchmark fell 3.7% last week, with Asia the worst performer. South Korea still hasn’t fully recovered from its record two-day plunge. Hedge funds have strengthened short positions in US ETFs. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose six basis points as traders priced in higher inflation from the oil shock.
The U.S. has outperformed most on the equity side, with the S&P 500 down just 2% last week, in part because U.S. energy self-sufficiency insulates it more than Asian or European markets.
But the 2% drop in futures on Monday suggests the buffer is thinning.
