According to Santiment, social sentiment around the majors has worsened sharply in recent days, with traders turning noticeably defensive as prices continue to fall.
That kind of fatigue typically occurs near inflection points — not at the start of new downtrends — and the data is starting to reflect that.
“Bitcoin has dumped below $100K for the second time this month. Predictably, this has caused a wave of FUD and concerned social media posts from retailers,” the firm said. “Santiment’s sentiment screens now show bitcoin with an unusually flat bullish-to-bearish ratio, Ethereum with only a marginally positive bias, and XRP sitting on one of its most fear-heavy metrics all year.”
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Historically, when retail trades turn negative across several large cap assets at once, capitulation tends to follow, removing weak hands and resetting the bid for larger players.
Onchain readings support a bottom view. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio has fallen to 0.476, a level that historically signals near-term market bottoms, CoinDesk noted on Wednesday.
The NUP ratio has previously triggered price increases, with bitcoin seeing double-digit percentage gains following similar readings on several occasions in 2024.
This sentiment comes as the broader market remains under pressure. Total crypto capitalization has fallen to $3.47 trillion, extending a month-long downward trend.
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted in an email to CoinDesk that while short-term attempts to form a bottom are visible, rallies are still being met with heavy selling, providing a classic signature of a medium-term correction rather than a structural break in the cycle.
Bitcoin’s drop toward $102,500 earlier (and now trading near $98,000) on Wednesday triggered another flush of realized losses among large wallets that bought around $110,000.
But on-chain data also shows that these flows are being absorbed by newer players, with institutional positioning leaning cautiously bullish into year-end. Sygnum’s latest survey reveals that 61% of institutions plan to increase their crypto exposure ahead of expected altcoin ETF launches and regulatory developments in 2026.
Strategic flows add weight to that view. Now one of the largest public Bitcoin holders, Strategy accumulated 487 BTC in the past week for an average of $102,557, bringing its total holdings to 641,692 BTC.
On the Ethereum side, currency reserves have fallen to their lowest level since May 2024, signaling a medium-term positive trend that typically reflects accumulation rather than distribution.
The market is still sliding lower, but the ingredients for a reflexive recovery are increasing: negative sentiment, heavy long-term liquidated clusters behind the rate, declining currency balances and continued institutional buying.
Retail may be stepping back, but major players appear to be preparing for the next leg — a setup that has historically favored short, sharp reversals rather than deeper capitulation.
