Bitcoin holds about $ 122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a record high of $ 126,200 earlier this week, with some market surveys still expecting an increase to a record $ 140,000 later this month.
Economics Timothy Peterson said in an X -post on Tuesday that Bitcoin has a 50% probability of rising to $ 140,000, with reference to simulations based on data from the last decade.
“There’s a 50% chance of Bitcoin ending the month over $ 140K,” Peterson said in an X post on Wednesday. “But there’s a 43% chance of Bitcoin ending under $ 136k.”
Half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.
There is a 50% chance of Bitcoin ending the month over $ 140,000
But there is a 43% chance that Bitcoin will finish under $ 136k. pic.twitter.com/lphfr0mry9– Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
BTC has risen almost 10% since the beginning of October, which has historically been one of the most bullish periods for all financial assets. The move is driven by record ETF flow and emigration of coins from centralized exchanges.
Exchange balances have fallen to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, with 170,000 coins withdrawn in the last month. This mixture of constant institutional purchases and shrinking supply has kept withdrawals low. The US -noted Spot-ETFs have added more than $ 60 billion since approvals in January 2204, including $ 3.2 billion last week, the second largest weekly intake on the record.
Trade tables note that the path for least resistance is still higher as “up to” plays out. In addition, the prospects of the S&P 500 remain constructive, which supports the Bull case in BTC.
“The election markets prices in a wild 5% chance of an additional 10% rally in SPX for the end of the year, and it becomes increasingly difficult to find a negative catalyst to counteract this view,” Augustine fan, head of insight on SignalPlus, said in a telegram message. “We saw a little short liquidation on the recent gorge, suggesting that the participants are underweight with minimal risk exposures.”
Still, optimism is not without risk.
“The Crypto market navigates in a delicate balance between strong technical support and significant macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research. “Accumulation trends and institutional demand have driven prices to new heights, but optimism is still exposed to surprises from bold.”
The absence of new financial data releases due to the ongoing US government’s shutdown has deprived investors of critical insights needed to make fresh allocations. Some observers are concerned that a lack of new data, especially inflation, may prevent them from being fed from cutting interest.
When FOMC and MAG-7 earnings arrive later this month, the data will collide with a market already expanded and leaned bullish. It will decide if the next move is a clean race for $ 140,000 or a reset further lower.
BTC’s Rally has been pausing in the last 24 hours thanks to profit. Prices have dropped more than 2%,, Deleting a driveway since Sunday and pulled XRP down, Solana’s sun, ether And Cardanos ada down as much as 7%.
The BNB chain’s BNB stands out with 1.5% gains in the same period, the lonely wolf in the green as the underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of fresh activity.
My Lens: $ 125,000 is the match line. ETF demand and withdrawal of whales give the bulls a pillow, but the quiet from macro will not last.
