Just yesterday, CoinDesk reported that despite lingering war risks, analysts predict bitcoin will rise to $88,000 and higher on the back of several crypto-specific factors, including bullish market currents.
But now, about 16 hours later, the price chart says: not so fast.
Bitcoins price has run straight into one of the most crucial technical levels – a descending trendline that has been in place since October when Bitcoin peaked above $126,000. And right on the signal, the price has turned lower from the trend line resistance.
What is a descending trend line and why does it matter
A descending trendline is drawn by connecting a series of gradually lower price peaks over time. Think of a ball dropped from a great height: As it bounces, each rebound is lower than the last. Now imagine connecting the lower highs with a straight line – that’s the descending trendline that captures the fading strength behind each bounce.
In the markets, this reflects declining purchasing power, with sellers increasingly asserting control over price action. The longer the trend line lasts and the more often the price lowers from it, the more significant it becomes, signaling a sustained bear phase.
In bitcoin’s case, this particular trend line has been sloping downward since the peak of $126,000 in October 2025. That’s about six months of lower highs and six months where the market is telling you: the trend is down.
This is what traders call a textbook bear market trend line.
The rejection
Since the beginning of February, bitcoin has risen from nearly $60,000 to over $71,000. Sounds bullish on the surface, and in isolation it is. But zoom out and you’ll immediately see that this is a recovery rally within the broader downtrend represented by the descending trendline.
That trend line was tested overnight and since then prices have been falling. This is what technical analysis aficionados call a trendline rejection, and it means that sellers have overpowered buyers exactly where the bear market trendline predicted they would.
The market probed for resistance, found it, and bounced back. Until BTC can close over this trend line on meaningful volume – don’t just penetrate it during the day – this line remains in control and the broader downtrend remains intact.
Fundamentals tell you what needs to happen, and analysts on Sunday cited several fundamental data sets, such as Coinbase premium ETF inflows and macro, as catalysts for a rally to $88,000.
However, the price chart tells you what is happening, and right now the textbook rejection of the six-month bear market trend line signals caution for the bulls.
What to see from here
The trend line is the key variable based on which two scenarios can unfold.
First, the recent trendline rejection invites stronger selling pressure, leading to a deeper decline to $65,000.
The second scenario involves BTC grinding up again and breaking through the trend line. That would be a significant positive development, one that would begin to align the chart with the bullish fundamental story.
Until the second scenario plays out, the chart and the bull case tell two different stories.
