There is a 15-point peace plan on the table and bitcoin sitting at $71,000, just as the ongoing war between the US and Israel may actually end.
Brent crude fell 4.7% to $99.55 on Wednesday, breaking below the $100 level it had held since mid-March, after Bloomberg reported that the United States had drawn up a 15-point plan to end the Iran conflict and delivered it to Tehran via Pakistan. Israel’s Channel 12 separately reported that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire. Asian shares rose 1.9 per cent. The dollar weakened. US and European futures pointed to further gains.
Bitcoin was trading at $71,019, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours, but still down 6.4% on the week. The weekly loss reflects the whipsaw from last week’s $75,000 high through the weekend’s 48-hour ultimatum panic and Monday’s double-header liquidation cascade.
The daily move is quieter and more constructive, with bitcoin holding above $70,000 for the third day in a row.
“While the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalize on the upward momentum and extend its gains, simply staying at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls,” FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in an email.
Ether (ETH) rose 1.7% to $2,164 but is down 9.2% on the week, the worst performing major over seven days. XRP (XRP) added 0.2% to $1.42, down 8.5% weekly. Solana rose 2.5% to $91.69 but has lost 3.8% on the week. BNB fell 0.5% to $638, down 6.8%. rose 1.7% to $0.094 but remains off 7.5% on the week. Tron (TRX) was the only major green on both timeframes, up 0.8% daily and 4.4% weekly.
The 15-point plan is the most concrete diplomatic development since the war began on 28 February. Trump has pushed the talks publicly, but the structure, participants and terms have been unclear until now. The plan reportedly includes a ban on Iran obtaining nuclear weapons or enriching radioactive material, although full details remain unclear.
The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, with only a trickle of vessels in transit.
Brent falls below $100, easing inflation headwinds that have compressed risk assets for a month.
Every dollar from the price of oil marginally improves the odds that the Fed holds in lieu of hikes, preventing the liquidity environment from worsening. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the S&P is still elevated, but the sensitivity has been asymmetric throughout the war.
Bitcoin is roughly flat since the war began, but all major altcoins are down between 4% and 9% on the week. The market has spent four weeks absorbing headlines, liquidation cascades and oil shocks, and the net result is a range that has neither broken higher nor collapsed lower.
Whether the 15-point plan leads to an actual ceasefire or becomes another headline to be rejected by Tehran within hours is the only question that matters this week.
