Glassnode’s latest weekly report highlights similarities between current market conditions and the early stages of the 2022 bear market, also known as crypto winter.
The first metric that suggests stress is the elevated risk of top buyer capitulation. Glassnode’s Cost Basis of Supply Quantiles, which tracks the cost basis of supply at top buyers, shows that since mid-November the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile and is trading near $96,100. This puts more than 25% of the BTC supply underwater. A similar breakdown below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market.
At the same time, total supply in losses on a 7-day simple moving average has now reached 7.1 million bitcoin, the upper end of the 5 million to 7 million range seen in early 2022.
Despite this pressure, capital continues to flow into bitcoin on a realized cap-net-change basis, which is close to $8.69 billion per month. However, this remains well below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode.
Off chain trends show further softening from investors. ETF demand continues to weaken, with IBIT recording a sixth consecutive week of outflows, its longest negative streak since launching in January 2024. Outflows now total more than $2.7 billion in redemptions over the past five weeks.
Activity on the spot market has also worsened. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) has rolled over, with Binance CVD in a sustained negative trend, observes Glassnode. The Coinbase premium, meanwhile, looks set to roll over again after recently turning positive after a long period in the red.
Derivative data reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest has declined throughout November and into December, suggesting reduced risk appetite, especially after the October 10 liquidation. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with short periods of negative prints and the funding premium has cooled, pointing to a more balanced and less speculative environment.
Glassnode also notes that traders are not positioning themselves for a strong breakout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The firm sees a cautious stance in the options market, where upside is being sold rather than chased. Earlier this week, put buying dominated as bitcoin neared $80,000. As the price later stabilized, flows shifted towards call activity as investors’ fears subsided.
